Miege22
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Post by Miege22 on Aug 31, 2023 13:50:29 GMT -5
I'm throwing this thread in NBA Talk even though it pertains to our league because I don't want it taking the poll off the "front page," so to speak. In the past, we've done division previews, though we haven't done those in a few years in large part because power rankings kind of took their place. With power rankings going away for this year, I figure it's time to bring back previews... with a little twist. We aren't going to break them down by division. Instead, we'll simply do them by conference, and each team preview will be posted in projected order of finish (hey, I didn't say it was a Shyamalan-level twist... well, maybe his later stuff). We'll start in the West for no particular reason other than I feel like it. Here's what each preview will contain: -Last year's record, finish -What category they fall into - Contender - expect to compete for a title
- Playoff Hopeful - expect to finish top-3 in the conference and avoid the play-in
- Play-In Battleground - expect to sneak into the playoffs
- Could Be Frisky - not quite in the rebuild category, if things break right, they could make the playoffs
- Rebuilding - playing for next year
-Players added/lost -Their big move of the summer -Player(s) set up to break out/step back -Projected top-7 -Strengths/Weaknesses -One big question -High end outcome -Low end outcome -Projected record A handful of teams will then have "bonus categories." These categories are for the league at-large, and are not meant for each team, so not everyone will have one. These include, but are not limited to... -Team turnaround (which team we expect to have a bounceback year) -Team turmoil (who we expect to finish lower than they would otherwise hope) -Projected MVP -Projected ROY -Trade acquisition likely to work out the best this season -Team in the conference we expect to fall out of the playoffs -Our bet to jump into the playoffs after missing last year -Under the radar move of the summer There may be some other categories as I post these, and I will add them as I think of them.
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Post by Miege22 on Aug 31, 2023 14:09:33 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 14-2, Midwest Champions, Lost in the first round to Portland
STATUS: Contender
ADDED
- Jaylen Brown
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Andre Drummond
- Anthony Black
- Gradey Dick
LOST
- Zion Williamson
- Andrew Wiggins
- PJ Washington
- De'Anthony Melton
- Eric Gordon
- Malik Beasley
BIG MOVE: Traded for Jaylen Brown (using assets they picked up in the Zion trade) After years of watching him take up an inordinate amount of time in their IR slot, the Houston Rockets made the seismic decision to move on from Zion Williamson this summer. In reality, it's a move that makes a lot of sense on it's face. The Rockets head into a very interesting season. They are quite clearly loaded and should once again compete for a title, but a number of their big names are heading for free agency this summer. Steph Curry, Julius Randle, Al Horford, Kevin Huerter, and Bojan Bogdanovic are all on expiring contracts. Zion was as well, so by trading him for Bojan and the #4, then flipping #4 and PJ Washington for Jaylen Brown, they essentially turned Zion into a re-sign worthy player while opening a spot for either Steph Curry or Julius Randle. Both players should be re-sign worthy, so they should be able to recoup assets for the player they choose to let go. To end up with Jaylen Brown locked up for three more years, is a savvy move by a franchise that always seems to find themselves near the top (also somewhat ironic given that they are the team that originally re-signed Brown in the first place.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jaylen Brown Yes, we are bullish on Brown's prospects with Marcus Smart no longer in the picture. Sure, Derrick White will be filling that role, but there will undoubtedly be more asked of Brown from a handling and creating standpoint. Can he crack 5 assists per game? We see no reason why he couldn't. Brown is hitting his prime, is armed with a fat, new contract, and will be tasked with more responsibility on both ends of the floor. We think there's another level to get to for him.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Damian Lillard We thought about Bojan Bogdanovic for this spot, but that seemed a little obvious. Instead, we'll go to an even more obvious pick. Dame will almost certainly be a top-15 fantasy player next year, but with that said, we do expect his scoring numbers to drop no matter where he's playing. If he stays in Portland, he'll have to come off the ball more as the team tries to work in Scoot Henderson. If he ends up in Miami, he'll be sharing the ball with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. In either scenario, 21 shots, 32 points, 9.6 free throw attempts, and 4.2 threes per game seem like a bit of a stretch. Can he counteract that by being more efficient from the floor and dishing out more assists? Possibly, but the biggest thing he had going for him was his scoring output (including threes and free throws). That should come back to Earth somewhat this season.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Damian Lillard SG: Steph Curry (yes, we expect him to regain SG eligibility with CP3 in town) SF: Jaylen Brown PF: Julius Randle C: Alperen Sengun UTL: Bojan Bogdanovic UTL: Al Horford
STRENGTHS: Points, Threes, FT% Having Steph Curry is a three-point cheat code. Having Steph Curry AND Damian Lillard? Come on. This Houston roster has 8 players that averaged at least 2 threes per game last season. All 8 finished in the top-50 in threes per game. Unsurprisingly, they had 10 players average at least 10 ppg (Horford would have been 11, but he finished at 9.8), and half of those guys were above 20 ppg. They had 7 players attempt more than 3 free throws per game, and they combined to shoot 82% on 38.6 FTA/game. This might be the most explosive offensive team in the history of the league. The ceiling is that high.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, Turnovers Much like last year's team, the traditional big man stats are going to this team's achilles heal. Last year, missing Zion only exacerbated that issue. They lost a number of solid(ish) rebounders in the summer, and it seems unlikely that Andre Drummond will play a big enough role to really boost this team. Blocks could be a year-long issue. On the less serious side of it, this team probably won't be winning the turnover category much this season, though the best teams hardly ever do. There's no doubt this team is going to be hoping Anthony Black can contribute in the ancillary categories from jump street.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Is this the year they finally get back to the Finals? It's been a long six years since they won their first, and only, title in 2016. Houston has been largely fantastic in that stretch. They've made the playoffs five times, won the division twice, finished with the best record in the league twice, and gone 67-27 (six games better than the 2nd winningest team in that time frame... Poopy's KC Kings). However, they failed to make it out of the first round in four of those five playoff appearances, and all but one could be classified as an upset (the only series they lost as a lower seed was in 2018, when they and Portland both finished 13-3, but Portland won the tiebreak and the higher seed). Shoot, let's stretch out a little more. In the last ten years, Houston is 114-44. That's a record that would make the 01 Mariners proud. And yet, in that time they've got just 1 title. The only 10-year stretch better is Brooklyn's run from 2009-2010 to 2018-2019, when they went an astounding 123-37. The Nets won 4 titles in that stretch. If you tell any team they'll win over 70% of their games and make the playoffs at least 8 times in the next 10 years, they'd almost surely respond with, "so we win, what, 2-3 titles?" The takeaway here is this: winning is HARD. Once you get into the playoffs, you are typically playing teams that are at or very near your level, and one bad game, one ill-timed injury, can sink a season. But that shouldn't diminish what the franchise has accomplished. What Houston has done the last decade has been astounding, and if this season goes the way we think it could, we'll likely be cutting out that 8-8 finish in 2014, and that decade win/loss will look even better. Will it result in a 2nd title? They have to like their chances.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Champions Pretty simple here. If everything goes right, the Rockets will be holding the LOB trophy for the 2nd time in their franchise history. That's the goal. That's the expectation. Not saying anything less would be a failure... but we'd guess it would be considered a disappointment.
LOW-END OUTCOME: 1st Round loss... again The West is really darn good. Even knowing that, we don't envision a scenario where the Rockets drop to the play-in. However, a loss in the first round similar to last year's against Portland? Yeah, that's certainly on the table. As good as Houston is, there are teams in the West that look like they could take advantage of their weaknesses (Portland and Colorado come to mind). So much will depend on health and availability come playoff time, but one of those teams absolutely could give Houston a run for their money.
OUR PROJECTION: 14-2, Midwest champions
BONUS CATEGORIES!!!
PROJECTED MVP: Steph Curry We're calling our shot with this one. Looking at the current landscape, some of the players that would otherwise be considered aren't going to be on serious contenders (looking at you, Jokic). We expect both LeBron and Embiid to pull back this year, while Portland and Colorado both have multiple guys that should share the workload. Neither Memphis or Tampa have a guy that looks like a lock to be in the race, though both figure to be good teams. This could be Giannis' award if the Wizards outpace expectations. Given all of that uncertainty, we're going to throw down the gauntlet and project Steph Curry to win his 2nd MVP. The last time that happened? 2017. We all know what happened that season...
UNDER THE RADAR MOVE OF THE SUMMER: Houston picking up a pick swap in 24 or 25 in the Zion trade While there's a lot of excitement about the Gamblers jumping back into the fray in the Western Conference, it should be noted, again, that the West is TOUGH. Looking at where things stand in August, it's not unreasonable to think Vegas is, at best, 7th in the conference. They could finish as low as 9th. There's a world where the Gamblers "win" the lottery, then have to watch as Houston exercises their swap rights and goes from the 20th pick to the 1st pick. The Rockets also gave themselves the ability to defer that swap to 2025, a year which many draft experts think will be far better than 2024. Ironically, it was a deal Houston made years ago for a pick swap that resulted in them moving up to first to draft Zion. Will history repeat itself?
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 1, 2023 11:07:24 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 11-5, 2nd in Pacific, Lost in the Finals to New York
STATUS: Contender
ADDED
- Terry Rozier
- De'Anthony Melton
- Josh Hart
- Jarred Vanderbilt
- Cam Whitmore
LOST
- Mikal Bridges
- RJ Barrett
- Nic Batum
- Grayson Allen
- John Wall
BIG MOVE: Signed Terry Rozier It was actually something of a quiet summer for the defending Western Conference champions. Portland was always going to be in a tough spot with both Bridges and Trae coming up for re-signs, and just one re-sign spot open. They ultimately elected to re-sign Trae and moved Bridges for the 12th pick in the draft, which they used on Cam Whitmore. It remains to be seen if Whitmore will have a role this year, but this team did well in free agency to replace Bridges (and Barrett/Batum/Allen). Terry Rozier is the standout of the group, though Hart and Melton are no slouches (and we'll get to Melton in a bit). Rozier had an excellent season last year, and should still be a solid contributor despite the Hornets bringing back Miles Bridges. If anything, the hope would be that Rozier's efficiency goes up with someone else to take tough shots off his plate.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: De'Anthony Melton An sneaky great signing right off the bat in FA, Melton had a very good year last year and is set up for even more success given the uncertainty of the Harden situation. Melton was very nearly the only member of the 2+ steals, 2+ threes per game club. He was only one of 8 players last year to average 1.5+ steals and 2+ threes, and he did it in by far the fewest minutes per game. It would not be a surprise at all to see him crack 30 mpg next year, and with the additional shots likely to go around, 2+ steals and 2+ threes feels like a real good bet.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Kevin Durant Much like Damian Lillard, it should almost be an expectation that KD's numbers will take a bit of a step back. In fact, we saw that happen in the short stint last year in PHX as his points, assists, and free throw attempts all decreased. With Bradley Beal now there in place of Chris Paul, his scoring will likely dip more. That said, his efficiency will likely increase, and, in fact, his threes jumped when he got to Phoenix. He will, again like Lillard, likely end up being a top-15 fantasy player next year... he just won't have the same incredible output.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Trae Young SG: Paul George SF: Kevin Durant PF: Draymond Green C: Brook Lopez UTL: Jakob Poeltl UTL: Josh Hart
STRENGTHS: Points, Assists, Steals, FT% Try as he might, Jakob Poeltl will not be able to sink this team's free throw percentage. Not with Trae Young, Kevin Durant, and Paul George on the roster. This team is going to score, and they're going to do it quite efficiently. They also employ another of true thieves, with half the team (7 players) averaging more than 1 steal per game last year. Frankly, this might be the most well-balanced team in the entire league. If they can get to the playoffs healthy, they're going to be a tough out.
WEAKNESS(ES): Turnovers There are really no real weak links here. We can probably pick nits with FG %, since Trae and Terry get shots up at a high clip and miss their fair share, but those guys get offset by the likes of KD, Poeltl, and Lopez. The one area they'll likely never win, similar to the Rockets, is turnovers. But as we said in their preview, good teams typically don't win this category anyway.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Can Kevin Durant make it through one more Finals run? Since leaving Brooklyn, the postseason has not been kind to Kevin Durant. He made it to the WCF in 2019 with the Kansas City Kings, though the Kings were quite overmatched against Memphis and didn't really stand much of a chance. After missing all of the following year with the achilles tear, he and Portland got to the playoffs again. But KD was coming off a long absence, missed a couple of games during their series against Houston, and largely didn't play like himself in their first round loss. In 2022, he got hurt late in the season, resulting in Portland's fall out of the playoff picture. Then last year he largely watched from the sidelines as Portland made their cinderella run to the finals. Sure he played at the end of the Houston series and helped them clinch, but he missed all of the WCF and most of the Finals. It could not have been a satisfying playoffs for KD, and it certainly was a bitter exit for the Blazers as they were left wondering what if. KD turns 35 this year, and given his injury history, there's no guarantee that he will be an MVP-caliber player for much longer. If he can just put together one healthy 6-week stretch when it matters most, though, he may just lead Portland to a title.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Champions There's going to be a theme with all of our "contenders." They should all expect to seriously compete for an NBA title, and anything less is going to be a tough pill to swallow. This league really isn't set up for long title windows (which is what makes Houston's run so remarkable), and Portland has already seen one key piece forced out the door. They'll see another one go at the end of the year when Brook Lopez becomes a free agent. We won't go so far as to say this is their last shot, but it could be their best shot.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Fall to, and lose, in the play-in Unlike Houston, we do envision a world where this Blazers team drops to 4th or 5th and suffers an ignominious early exit. KD and PG have had a bad habit of getting hurt at the worst possible times, and that's certainly plausible again this year.
OUR PROJECTION: 12-4, Pacific champions
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 4, 2023 14:57:56 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 13-3, 2nd in Midwest, Lost in the WCF to Portland
STATUS: Contender
ADDED
- Deni Avdija
- Josh Richardson
- Kobe Bufkin
LOST
- Zach Collins
- Josh Hart
- Gordon Hayward
- Austin Reaves
BIG MOVE: None The Swannies, fresh off their most successful season in over a decade, decided to play it safe and bank on internal improvement this summer. And for good reason. LaMelo Ball, Darius Garland, Josh Giddey, and Josh Green are still years away from their prime, and all should have higher levels to reach. Anthony Davis, Myles Turner, and Robert Williams, when they're healthy, form one of the best big men trios in the league. They did go out and get Deni Avdija and Josh Richardson, a very good return for the 19th pick in the draft... then proceeded to trade for the player taken with the 19th pick for just $1,000,000. When you think about it, they essentially traded $1 million for Josh Richardson and Deni Avdija, a savvy move they hope pays big dividends this year.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Kyle Kuzma Kuz had a great season last year, averaging 21 points, 7 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists per game. He was a big reason the Swannies were able to take the next step to the postseason after coming up just a hair short in 2022. With real life Washington's move to rebuild, things have really opened up for Kuz to take advantage. It's likely he'll see an efficiency dip, but with extra on-ball reps to go around, he should almost certainly see his points and assist totals jump. He also had a career year from three, averaging 2.5 threes per game on by far the most attempts he's ever taken per game. If he can get those attempts up to around 9 per game, there's a good chance he can average 3 made threes per game, something only 14 players were able to do last year.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Robert Williams III While the Swannies are banking on Avdija and Kuzma to increase their production following the trade of Porzingis, they should likely expect his arrival in Boston to stunt some of Timelord's production. Williams already saw his role decrease last year as he played through a knee injury and a change in philosophy. The good news for Colorado is that they only signed Williams to a one-year deal, so if the numbers to decline or stay even, they'll be able to let him walk in the off-season.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: LaMelo Ball SG: Darius Garland SF: Kyle Kuzma PF: Anthony Davis C: Myles Turner UTL: Josh Giddey UTL: Robert Williams III
STRENGTHS: Blocks, FT% One of the rare teams that excels in both blocks and FT%. They can thank the unique games of Anthony Davis and Myles Turner for that. Both players not only block more than 2 shots per game, but they both shoot over 78% from the line, a club only four players in the entire league can claim to be a part of (Brook Lopez and JJJ are the other two). Frankly, outside of Davis, Turner, and Timelord, they really don't have any other shot blockers, but those three are so good the rest of the team doesn't need to block shots. While they do have a couple of guys who aren't great free throw shooters, none of them take a significant number of attempts, allowing the Swannies to stay near the top of the league in that category.
WEAKNESS(ES): Points We're nitpicking here, admittedly, but we're also comparing this team to the other contenders, and from that standpoint, they don't quite measure up when it comes to scoring the ball. They had five guys averaged fewer than 10 ppg last year, and two others averaged less than 11 per. Davis, Ball, Kuzma, and Garland were all 20+ ppg scorers, but Ball missed a significant portion of the season (including the playoffs). That's where the loss of depth pieces like Hayward and Reaves could come back to bite them.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Did they lose more than we thought? The Swannies spent over a decade building last year's team, and it paid off as they made the playoffs for the first time since 2010. They then knocked off 2nd-seeded Phoenix, before barely falling to the Trailblazers. Despite the loss of Ball, they were able to make that run in large part because of the contributions of Austin Reaves, Josh Hart, and Zach Collins, all of whom had fantastic 2nd halves of the season. All three left in free agency, and it's hard to say that the guys brought in (Avdija, Richardson, and Bufkin) will be able to replace that production. Typically, when a team makes the conference finals and returns their top-6 players, you feel pretty good about said team's chances. For the Swannies, though, their depth was key to their run, and the West is incredibly tough. Obviously, we are still high on this team because of the star talent, but there is some cause for concern here.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Champions Colorado, after a somewhat choppy regular season due to injuries, catches their stride in the final six weeks of the season to clinch the third seed. Buoyed by a strong finish, and a finally healthy roster, they pull off upsets against the Trailblazers and Rockets. In the first Finals appearance in franchise history, Garland, AD, Giddey, and LaMelo refuse to get that far and lose, and turn in a dominant two week performance to take down the defending champion Knicks. In the league's 15th season, Kots becomes the 5th of the 6 remaining OGs to win a title.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Injuries wreak havoc, miss the playoffs With the number of injury risks here, this team is truly boom or bust. In the bust scenario, AD, Turner, Timelord, and Ball struggle to make it through 16 weeks healthy. With one or two of their bigs constantly in and out of the lineup, they're unable to keep pace, and struggle to a 7-9 season. Teams like Seattle and Kansas City, with better depth, are able to take advantage and get into the playoffs as the Swannies falter. With nearly half the roster heading to free agency, the Swannies have to regroup and figure out a new plan to get back to the postseason
OUR PROJECTION: 12-4, 2nd in Midwest
BONUS CATEGORIES!!!
SAVVIEST TRADE: #18 for Josh Richardson and Deni Avdija On the surface it might not look like much. The Swannies simply traded a late first for two decent rotation players. What made this move special was what happened next. Not long after making this move, the Swannies they jumped into the monster 11-team deal and brought back the very player they traded away for just $500,000. When it was all said and done, the Swannies essentially used the 18th pick on Kobe Bufkin, who they were after anyway, AND added two actual contributors for the measly sum of just $500,000. That's how you stay relevant without going crazy in free agency.
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 5, 2023 11:32:16 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 6-10, 3rd in Pacific, missed playoffs
STATUS: Contender
ADDED
- Bradley Beal
- Khris Middleton
- Jaden McDaniels
- Mitchell Robinson
- Kris Murray
LOST
- Jimmy Butler
- Dennis Smith Jr.
- Matisse Thybulle
- Isaiah Livers
- Jae'Sean Tate
- Josh Primo
BIG MOVE: Traded for Bradley Beal and Jaden McDaniels 2022-2023 was a disappointing season for the defending champions. After COVID and injuries demolished what the Warriors thought was a real contender in 2021, everything came together in 2022. Golden St. went 14-2, finishing with the best record in the league for the first time in history, and they rode that momentum all the way to their first title. With so many players returning from that championship group, the Warriors once again felt they would be legitimate contenders. Instead, injuries and bad luck killed them once again. The team opened the year 1-7, with 5 of those losses agonizingly close, which effectively ended their title defense before getting to the 2nd half of the season. Golden St. refused to rest on their laurels, and they responded by swinging for the fences, sending Jimmy Butler and Max Strus to Seattle in exchange for Bradley Beal and Jaden McDaniels. It's an open question what Beal's role will look like playing alongside Devin Booker, still with the Warriors here, and Kevin Durant. He likely won't be hitting the career high scoring mark he set a couple years ago, but with Booker and Durant taking the defensive attention off of him, he should be able to turn in the most efficient season of his career. Meanwhile, Jaden McDaniels set career highs in blocks, steals, FG %, and threes last year. If he can take another step forward, he will give this team a depth piece they so sorely lacked last year.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Tre Jones 22-23 was a big year for the young point guard out of Duke. Following the trade of Dejounte Murray, the Spurs gave him the car keys... and he didn't disappoint. His efficiency took a little bit of a dip, but 46% is still very solid given his increased usage. He also got to the line 2.5 times per game (up from 1.3), while setting career highs in points, assists, steals, and rebounds. The Spurs elected not to bring in a veteran point guard this summer, showing they have full confidence in Tre Jones to lead the team alongside Victor Wembanyama. With Wemby setting up easy lob opportunities for Jones, cracking 7 assists per game should be an easy goal to reach. Considering Jones doesn't currently project as one of the top-7 players on this roster, having a steady point guard like him on the bench alongside McDaniels goes along way to repairing this group's bench.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Bradley Beal We kind of covered this in the section above, but Beal simply won't have the ball in his hands nearly as much as he did in Washington. Now, he did take a bit of a step back on that front last year, so maybe he can hit the 23-4-5 he averaged last year. At the same time, it's possible his defensive stats tick back up now that he won't be the focal point of the offense. Beal averaged at least 1.2 steals per game for four straight years before dropping to 0.9 the last two years. If he can bump that back up, it could offset what he will likely lose on the offensive front.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Fred VanVleet SG: Devin Booker SF: Khris Middleton PF: Pascal Siakam C: Nikola Vucevic UTL: Bradley Beal UTL: Mitchell Robinson
STRENGTHS: Steals, Assists, FT% They may have traded Jimmy Butler, but steals and free throw % remain strong categories for this team. FVV is quite helpful on that front, as he averaged 1.8 steals per game last year while shooting 89.8% from the line (which is rather important given his ghastly FG %). They do roster both Mitchell Robinson and Mark Williams, both of whom really struggle from the line, but the two averaged just over 4 free throw attempts combined. The solid assist numbers from Siakam and Vucevic, two positions where their assist figures really stand out, help make this team formidable in the category.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks Mitchell Robinson is going to do work in this category, but the Warriors are really going to need someone else to step up and give him some help. At this point in his career, it's clear that help won't come from Nikola Vucevic... but could it come from Mark Williams? The 2nd year big man got 17 starts last year, and as a starter, he averaged 1.1 blocks per game. With Mason Plumlee out of the picture, Williams should get the nod at center. If he can replicate his post-ASB numbers (12-10 on 65% shooting) while upping the blocks (only 0.8), the Warriors are going to be very happy.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Can they prove 2022 wasn't a fluke? Look, if the Warriors don't have the season they want this year, it doesn't take away from what they accomplished in 21-22. Sometimes things just don't break your way. That said, it would likely be bittersweet for the Warriors if they don't at least make the playoffs this season. These last four years, essentially starting with their trade of Ant Edwards and Devin Vassell for Booker, have featured the four most talented teams in franchise history. Coming out of it with just one playoff appearance, even if that lone appearance resulted in a title, will likely be looked at as something of a disappointment. Getting off to a good start is going to be key for this team. In the two years sandwiching the title, they started 1-7 and 0-8, ending their seasons before the playoff race truly heated up. Those two years featured some rather difficult starting schedules. This year is a little different. They'll open the season with OKC, Phoenix, Seattle, and Las Vegas; four very winnable games. The schedule toughens up from there, but if they can get through that first quarter of the season 4-0, they'll have to feel good about their chances of getting back to the postseason.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Champions The fourth western conference team we think can win the title. The top end talent is there. The depth pieces are there. They may not be set up quite the way Portland or Colorado are to take advantage of Houston's weaknesses, but in the right week(s), Booker/Beal/Siakam is as good a trio as there is in this league. We say this for just about everyone, but it's all about health for this crew. Health, and a little luck, like they got against the Kings in the 2022 WCF, could just net them their 2nd title in 3 years.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Injuries wreak havoc, miss the playoffs, sends a top-10 pick to Atlanta Much like the Swannies, this team is relying on a few guys with checkered injury histories. Unlike the Swannies, the Warriors have the added pressure of not owning their pick. If they can't make the playoffs, then a lotto pick, with no protections, is going to Atlanta (or Toronto, possibly). It's not really something you can worry about if you're the Warriors, but it is out there and would only add insult to injury.
OUR PROJECTION: 12-4, 2nd in Pacific
BONUS CATEGORIES!!!
WC LOTTO TEAM MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS The Dubs are our pick to fill the void that Phoenix is leaving behind with their decision to rebuild (we'll get to them later). We love what this team has done from a depth perspective. We've touched on McDaniels and Tre Jones, but we're also bullish on AJ Griffin and Jalen McDaniels. Actually, now that we think about it, this team qualifies for a new bonus category...
MOST LIKELY PLAYOFF TEAM TO FEATURE TWO BROTHERS For the first time since they were teammates at Federal Way High School in Washington state, the brothers McDaniels are back together again. If the Warriors make the playoffs with both on the roster, they'll be the first pair of brothers to make the playoffs with the same team since the 2014 Utah Jazz made it all the way to the Finals with both Pau and Marc Gasol. At least, we're fairly certain those are the last brothers to do that. We have had two brothers play against one another in the Finals. That happened in 2017 when Houston's Steph Curry faced off against Washington's Seth Curry. We'll do a little more research, and if we find any other brothers that can claim such a feat, we'll post about it in the proper team preview.
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 6, 2023 9:40:32 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 7-9, 4th in Midwest, missed playoffs
STATUS: Playoff Hopeful
ADDED
- Jimmy Butler
- Dejounte Murray
- Paolo Banchero
- Malcolm Brogdon
- Isaiah Stewart
- Luke Kennard
- Terance Mann
- Matisse Thybulle
- TJ McConnell
- Drew Eubanks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker
LOST
- Donovan Mitchell
- Brandon Ingram
- Spencer Dinwiddie
- Kevon Looney
- Malik Monk
- Max Strus
- Dorian Finney-Smith
- Jaylin Williams
- Gary Harris
- Oshae Brissett
- TJ Warren
BIG MOVE: Everything? No team turned over their roster more than Poopy's Kings. Coming off a heartbreaking WCF loss, the Kings pushed almost all their trade chips to the center of the table to land Donovan Mitchell. They proceeded to use a re-sign on Mitchell and watched as he turned in the best year of his career. Unfortunately for the Kings, the lack of depth was too much to overcome, and they sputtered to a disappointing 7-9 finish. To make matters worse, their move for Brandon Ingram at the deadline completely blew up in their face as Ingram never got back on the floor, and the pick they moved to acquire him jumped to #2. With that as the backdrop, Poopy went to work rebuilding this team. The only players returning from last year? SGA, Walker Kessler, and Jerami Grant (who the team actually had to win back in free agency). Notable names now in the building include Jimmy Butler, Dejounte Murray, and Paolo Banchero. Will it be enough? It's hard to say, but Poopy's recent track record is impressive. No team in the West has made it to the postseason more than the Kings in the last 5 years (4 trips, tied with Houston). Only the Sonics have made as many conference finals appearances (two). Their 55-23 record over the last 5 years is the best mark in the entire league. For all his bluster, Poopy actually has the numbers to back it up.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Drew Eubanks This was a tough one since so many of the guys on this roster are established, and one wouldn't expect them to "break out," so to speak. We're going with a deep cut here. When Drew Eubanks started to see his minutes tick up post-ASB last year, he was putting up some impressive numbers for a backup. 8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 1.6 blocks might not seem like a lot, but he was doing that in just 22 minutes per game. Now, he's not going to jump up to 35-36 minutes in Phoenix, but there's a golden opportunity for him to really push Ayton as the ideal big man alongside those three wing scorers. It's not difficult for us to see a world where DeAndre Ayton doesn't take a shine to the dirty work, and Eubanks, a certified garbage man, starts to eat into those minutes. Even if he just puts up a consistent 8-7 with 1.5 blocks, that's going to go a long way for this Kings team.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Malcolm Brogdon The writing appears to be on the wall for Brogdon in Boston. They tried, and failed, to trade him once already. Coming off his healthiest season in years, Brogdon was solid in a smaller role. 48/44/87 shooting splits, 15-4-4 with 2 threes per game. That's really quite good for a backup guard. Unfortunately, he banged up his elbow in the playoffs, and he saw all those numbers plummet. Now, with Marcus Smart gone, there is an opening here for Brogdon to actually increase his production. We're skeptical he stays healthy enough to do that.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Dejounte Murray SG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander SF: Jimmy Butler PF: Paolo Banchero C: Walker Kessler UTL: Jerami Grant UTL: Malcolm Brogdon
STRENGTHS: Steals, FG%, FT% By moving Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram for Jimmy Butler and Dejounte Murray, the Kings are going all in on steals, FG %, FT %. Consider this: the Kings are now the only team with 3 players who averaged 1.5+ steals per game last year. In SGA and Butler, they have two of the top-7 players in FTA per game (SGA was 3, Butler was 7). Those two were 2nd and 4th, respectively, in FT % amongst that group. Throw in Paolo, and they have 3 of the top-12. Include Grant, and those four shoot 83.6% from the line on a whopping 32.4 attempts. 6 players on this team attempted more than 10 shots per game last year. Those 6 combined to shoot 48.5%. The other 8 players shot 52.3%. Add them all up, and this roster shot 49.8% from the floor last season.
WEAKNESS(ES): Threes, Rebounds One of the big areas the Kings lost ground from last year was from beyond the arc. None of Butler, Murray, or Paolo are prolific three-point shooters. In fact, the three combined to average as many threes per game as Donovan Mitchell. In order to overcome that deficiency, the Kings are going to be banking on a couple of guys. First is Luke Kennard. After his trade to Memphis last year, Kennard averaged a whopping 3.1 threes per game, which would have placed him 9th in the NBA. With Dillon Brooks gone, and Ja Morant on the shelf for the first half of the season, there will be plenty of shots to go around for Kennard. The other guy they're going to need is Matisse Thybulle. Similar to Kennard, once Thybulle was traded to Portland, he saw far more opportunities, and he put up 1.5 threes (including 1.7 steals). If he can replicate those numbers, it will go a long way to replacing what they lost (we didn't even touch on Strus or Monk). On the rebounding front, they're essentially relying on Walker Kessler getting more minutes. His per-36 rebounding numbers were off the charts, but he only played 23 minutes per game last year.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Is SGA the best fantasy player in the league? Honestly, he might be. He was 4th in points. Shot 51% on the 7th most attempts per game. Over 90% from the line on the third most attempts per game. He was the only guard to average more than 1 block and 1 steal per game (and he was 5th in steals per game). The only real knock on him is that he doesn't really make threes. However, just two years ago he was averaging 2 threes per game, so it is something he can add back to his game if he needs to. Two years ago, SGA turned in a fantastic conference finals performance nearly pushing the Kings to their first Finals appearance in franchise history. If the Kings want to have any shot at finally making it to the big stage, they're going to need him to turn in another MVP-level season.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Paolo makes a leap and the top-6 carries them to the Finals When the Kings started this run back in 2019, they did something that had never been done in the Western Conference. As the three seed that year, they upset the 2nd-seeded Houston Rockets. It was the first 3 over 2 upset in Western Conference history, and oddly enough, it kicked off a streak of five straight years that the 3 seed has beaten the 2 seed. The Kings were two of those five winners, yet they were unable to keep it going all the way to the Finals. This year, with one of the most talented top-6 lineups in the league, and 2nd year budding star Paolo Banchero making a leap, the Kings finally get the job done. They finish third, take out Portland and benefit from a Houston upset to make it all the way to the Finals. Poopy's reign truly begins.
LOW-END OUTCOME: The depth never comes together, they miss the playoffs, lose their pick Depth did in the Kings last year, and much like that season, the guys they really need to perform simply don't. The bottom of the roster: Thybulle, Mann, Eubanks, McConnell, and NAW, prove to be a bigger drag than expected. The Sonics prove to be a deeper, more well-rounded team, and sneak past KC for the final playoff spot. Resigned to the lottery, the Kings have to watch, once again, as their pick gets sent to either OKC or Brooklyn. They head into the summer with a boatload of cap space, but a lot of questions that need to be answered.
OUR PROJECTION: 9-7, 3rd in Midwest
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Miege22
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 7, 2023 11:35:01 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 5-11, 4th in Pacific, missed playoffs
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Brandon Ingram
- Marcus Smart
- Spencer Dinwiddie
- Tyus Jones
- Harrison Barnes
- Kevon Looney
- Max Strus
- Gabe Vincent
- Chris Boucher
LOST
- Dejounte Murray
- Bradley Beal
- Rudy Gobert
- Jaden McDaniels
- Isaiah Stewart
- JaMychal Green
- Saben Lee (MAKE A WAIVER POST FOR HIM rudolph3 lol)
BIG MOVE: Traded for Brandon Ingram New owner, new priorities in Seattle. One of those priorities? Rebuild the team around Bam Adebayo. After the worst opening decade of any team in the league, Seattle finally found success under their previous owner. In the first ten years of their existence, the Sonics had the worst record of any team in the league (51-109). They also were one of only two teams (Colorado is the other) that failed to finish in the top-2 of their division... at any point. They made the playoffs in their inaugural season, but that said more about the futility of the Western Conference than it did the Sonics as they snuck into the last spot with a 7-13 record. However, under new leadership, they traded for James Harden (more on him later) and immediately vaulted to the top of the league. They went 22-8 in two seasons, advancing to the Finals both years (though one of those was canceled due to COVID). They'd fallen on hard times recently, but new owner, Rudy, got right to work this off-season. Gone are three foundational pieces in Bradley Beal, Dejounte Murray, and Rudy Gobert. In their place are Brandon Ingram, Marcus Smart, and a host of solid role players. In a stacked West, it may not be enough to get back to the Finals. However, there are enough swing players to make this interesting, chief among them Brandon Ingram. When he can stay on the floor, Ingram is a top-30 fantasy player. Unfortunately, he's missed 64 games over the last two years. He, and the Sonics, will desperately need that trend to reverse itself.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Tyus Jones It's got to be Tyus Jones. After years backing up Ja Morant, Jones finally gets his chance to start in Washington... and his numbers as a starter are nothing to sneeze at. As a starter last year (22 games), Jones averaged 16/8/4 with 1.8 steals, 2 threes, and 50% shooting. The year before, he started 23 games and put up 13/6.6/3 with 1 steal, 1.6 threes, and 45% shooting. If that's his floor, then this was a remarkably shrewd signing but the new Seattle regime.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Kevin Porter Jr. This is a tough one. KPJ is a guy that we looked upon favorably as a rookie, and he's one of the prizes of the previous Seattle ownership. It was a great story. Local kid with a tough upbringing makes it to the big time and gets to play for his hometown team. Unfortunately, things have not been easy for KPJ since he's been in the league. His numbers last year were solid, but he missed a lot of games due to injury and has a number of off-court issues. With the real life Rockets bringing in FVV, Dillon Brooks, and Amen Thompson, the writing might be on the wall for him. Even if they don't end up moving him, it's almost a guarantee that his minutes and usage will take a dive. Maybe he can up the efficiency, but it looks like a certainty he won't be hitting 19-5-6 again this season.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Marcus Smart SG: James Harden SF: Brandon Ingram PF: Kevon Looney C: Bam Adebayo UTL: Tyus Jones UTL: Spencer Dinwiddie
STRENGTHS: Assists, FT% We covered Tyus Jones' starting numbers, and we all know James Harden led the league in assists last year (10.7). But did you know that Spencer Dinwiddie averaged 9.1 assists per game after being traded from the Mavs back to the Nets? Meanwhile, Marcus Smart put up a career high 6.3 assists per game playing alongside Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, and Jayson Tatum. He should absolutely be able to match that number now in Memphis, if not surpass it. Dinwiddie's 9.1 number would have placed him 5th in the league. Tyus' 8.1 would have been 7th. This a team loaded with passing... they also shoot free throws quite well. As a team, they were 81% last year. The one thing that could, potentially, hold them back in this category is that their volume is not the highest. Last year, this team would have averaged just 45.3 attempts per game.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, FG% Now the two main areas of weakness here. The Sonics have no players on their roster that averaged 1 or more blocks per game last year. The only other teams that are in that category are the rebuilding Suns and the Grizzlies. Given the shotblocking talent of some of the teams ahead of them, they're almost always going to lose that category. The other issue they face is shooting the ball. Half the roster shot under 45% from the floor last year, and a number took quite a few shots (Harden, KPJ, and Dinwiddie took over 42 shots between them, and all shot under 45%). Given that the talent on this team is skewed heavily to the backcourt, those numbers being a problem makes all the sense in the world
ONE BIG QUESTION... Is James Harden going to play? We're not going to say this team's playoff hopes rest solely on James Harden... but this team's playoff hopes kind of rest solely on James Harden. It remains to be seen if James Harden is serious about his holdout threat, and even if he does play, what kind of James Harden are we going to see? Harden's real life legacy might leave something to be desired, but his fantasy legacy is untouchable. James Harden is the winningest player in this league, which is what makes the last two seasons so bizarre. Starting in 2012, Harden's teams made the playoffs 9 times in 10 years. They won 4 titles, advanced to 6 Finals, made 8 conference finals and have a postseason record of 18-4. Last year was the first time since Harden's first two years in the league that he failed to make the playoffs in consecutive seasons... and that opened the door for the 2nd most successful player of this era, LeBron James, to close the gap. After last year's title with the Knicks, LeBron is now 18-6 in the playoffs, 3-2 in the Finals (with 6 appearances; the COVID Finals was canceled), and has appeared in 9 conference finals (which includes 6 straight, a league record). Given the two teams' respective expectations, there's a good chance LeBron will surpass Harden in the 2024 playoffs. Now, the Sonics have done what they could to insulate themselves if Harden isn't himself (or doesn't show), but doing that led to deficiencies in other areas. Maybe Harden does show up, but will it be enough to power the Sonics back to the playoffs? We're not so sure anymore.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Harden shows up, plays well, and improved depth leads to a conference finals berth It's hard to see this team pulling off multiple upsets and making the Finals, but pulling off a first round shocker after winning the play-in? Yeah, we can definitely see that happening. The killer for this team the last couple years was a top-heavy roster and absolutely no depth. The Sonics will be taking darn near the opposite approach. They are deep 1-14, though there's not nearly as much top-end talent. Those teams have tended to fizzle out in the playoffs, but every now and then you see a 2018 Kings or 2021 Bulls surprise some folks (and in the Bulls' case, surprise folks all the way to a title). It's likely their lack of defensive stats and poor shooting comes back to bite them before the Finals, but they can certainly get hot for a 2-3 week stretch and outduel a top tier opponent.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Harden sulks, the swing guys strike out, Seattle sends a top-10 pick to Houston This is going to be similar to the Kings, but we're kind of in that category now in the West. Previous ownership left the draft cupboard largely bare, and that's evidenced by this past draft (the eventual #2 pick) and the upcoming draft (another pick that Houston has control over). Rather than rehash it, everyone can save themselves some time and look at what we wrote in this section for Kansas City.
OUR PROJECTION: 8-8, 3rd in Pacific
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Miege22
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 8, 2023 10:51:02 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 10-6, 3rd in Midwest, lost play-in game to Portland
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Jusuf Nurkic
- Clint Capela
- Dennis Schroder
- Lu Dort
- Brandon Miller
LOST
- Jamal Murray
- Jordan Clarkson
- Lonnie Walker
- Drew Eubanks
- Thomas Bryant
- Kendrick Nunn
BIG MOVE: Traded Jamal Murray for Brandon Miller The 2021-2022 Jazz ended the season in wildly unfamiliar territory. After winning 9+ games every year for 12 years, the 21-22 Jazz hit rock bottom. They stumbled to a 5-11 record and were left to pick up the pieces without a draft pick. Utah had been a model of consistency in this league for over a decade. In fact, 10 of those first 12 seasons ended with double-digit victories, and the only reason they hit 9 twice was because both seasons were shortened (9-1 in 11-12 and 9-5 in 20-21). Last year's Jazz team was determined to get back to the postseason, and they exploded out of the gate to a 7-2 record. While they stumbled a bit in the second half of the season (just 3-4 in the last 7 weeks), it was still good enough to get them into the play-in as the 5th seed. Unfortunately, the wheels came off. The Jazz lost Jamal Murray and Bobby Portis for the entire match-up. Russ missed multiple games. DeMar missed a game. While having them wouldn't have guaranteed a win, losing that many games doomed them. After that flameout, the Jazz decided to go in a direction they've never once gone. They traded Jamal Murray for the #3 pick in the draft, which they then used on Brandon Miller. It was a massive change in philosophy, which we will get to shortly.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Dennis Schroder It's been a frustrating few seasons for Schroder, from a fantasy perspective, since he really found his stride in OKC. He's bounced around from the Lakers, to the Celtics, the Rockets, and back to the Lakers. He never really got a chance to be the main decision maker in any stop, but it looks like he'll get that opportunity for the Raptors. His numbers as a starter have always been solid, if unspectacular, and while he certainly won't completely fill the void left by Jamal Murray, he should be able to approximate about 75ish% of it. And if he actually stays on the floor, it's possible he could have a bigger impact than Murray.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Lu Dort Dort already saw his production dip last year, thanks to the emergences of SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams. His scoring, efficiency, and volume all decreased from the previous year. If he's going to have any value to this Jazz team, they're really going to need him to become more of an event defender. He's obviously a very good defender, but it doesn't really translate to steals, blocks, or boards the way you would hope for in the fantasy game. Maybe with SGA, Giddey, and Jalen doing all of the creation, and Chet holding down the backline, it will open up Dort to try and gamble just a bit more.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Russell Westbrook SG: DeMar DeRozan SF: Buddy Hield PF: Lauri Markkanen C: Clint Capela UTL: John Collins UTL: Bobby Portis
STRENGTHS: Points, Rebounds This team is absolutely going to score. Every player, save Miller, averaged 10+ points last year. That's something no other team can claim. Along those same lines, the strength of this team is in the frontcourt, and that is evidenced by the rebounding numbers. The Jazz have 4 of the top 30 rebounders from last year, along with the 8th best rebounding PG (Russ), and the 8th best rebounding SG (Hield). The big question here, obviously, is if some of those rebounders are going to have a similar role. Nurkic, Capela, and Portis are all in situations where they could see their minutes cut, which would be a massive problem given this team's weaknesses.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, Assists For a team with solid scoring and rebounding big men, those bigs really don't block shots. Only Clint Capela and John Collins averaged at least 1 block per game last year. Frankly, this team lacks in both defensive categories. Assists are likely to be a problem as well, given this team's big man bent. Russ still averaged roughly the same number of assists with the Clippers as he did with the Lakers, and Schroder will likely tick up in Toronto, but those are really the only assist guys on this team. You can probably throw DeMar in there, but, again, another guy where the situation could be dramatically different than last year.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Will Brandon Miller give them anything this year? We said this represented a sea change in philosophy, and we meant it. Simply put, the Utah Jazz do not utilize the draft. They've made 7 picks in 15 drafts. They once sat out the draft for 7 straight seasons. Prior to this year, the highest pick they've had was 13th... back in the FIRST rookie draft this league had in 2009. Oddly enough, they made 5 picks in the first 3 drafts, so their early history gave no indication they'd simply give up on it. However, it hasn't been a problem. The Jazz are one of only two teams to make more playoff appearances than draft picks (11 playoff appearances). The only other team to do that? The Tampa Bay Bull Sharks. The numbers get even wilder though. This was the first time Utah drafted in the top 5... something that every other team in the league has done at least twice. The Nets and Raptors have combined to make NINETEEN (19) top-5 selections in league history. In fact, the Nets alone made 6 picks in this past draft, nearly matching Utah's entire franchise output in two weeks. To say there will be pressure on Brandon Miller is an understatement. Not only does he have all that in the background, but the Jazz will need to replace their starting backcourt. Jamal Murray and Jordan Clarkson combined to averaged 40 points, 8 rebounds, and 10 assists, with over 5 threes per game. That's a lot of production just gone. Obviously Schroder, as mentioned previously, will fill some of that, but Miller is the only other on ball player the Jazz brought in (and he might not even be that on ball). If Miller takes a while to find his footing, it could be a long year in Utah. And you'll be surprised to hear this... they do not have their pick in the 2024 draft.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Win in the play-in Making any kind of real run at the title appears to be a fantasy, given the make-up of this roster, but they could certainly make it out of the play-in. They may be a level below the top-3 in this conference, but they can certainly beat the Kings, Sonics, or Thunder in the right week. If Miller comes in and looks good right off the bat, that may go a longer way than making the playoffs as far as how we'd feel about this team moving forward.
LOW-END OUTCOME: They miss the playoffs and have to send their pick to Brooklyn/OKC The Jazz have always valued guys with proven track records of production, and it's a big reason they've been so consistent (save for two years ago). That said, there doesn't appear to be anyone with higher ceilings they need to reach. Brandon Miller, sure, but even if he's good this year, he won't hit his true outcome for a little while. Theoretically, this team could have over $30 million in space next year, though that would require declining DeMar's option. If they decide to bring him back, they'll still have almost $24 million in space, and next year's class should be solid. Without their pick, it seems likely they'll head into the off-season trying, once again, to find the right FA alchemy.
OUR PROJECTION: 7-9, 4th in Midwest
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Miege22
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 11, 2023 8:55:20 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 4-12, 5th in Midwest, missed playoffs
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Thomas Bryant
- Will Barton
- Mo Bamba
LOST
- Devin Vassell
- Coby White
- Maxi Kleber
- Udoka Azubuike
BIG MOVE: Traded Devin Vassell for Bogdanovic, pick The Thunder entered the off-season behind the 8-ball from a salary perspective, a situation that was only exacerbated when they decided to pick up the option of Coby White. Ultimately, they elected to waive White to open up enough space to fill out the roster, then went bargain bin shopping and came back with Cam Payne, Mo Bamba, Thomas Bryant, and Will Barton. It seems unlikely any of those guys are going to make a noticeable difference, but it appears they were really just filler. The Thunder are extremely top heavy, and they seemed to realize this by moving Devin Vassell for Bogdan Bogdanovic and a first that should likely be in the lottery. Bogdanovic will be a cheaper option in the 24-25 season after Vassell's kicker comes into play, and the plan here clearly looks to be to try and tread water and hope for some lottery luck. After moving last year's first before the season for Seth Curry, only to watch as that pick ultimately became Victor Wembanyama, it's hard to fault the Thunder for taking this path.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Christian Braun Things may look somewhat bleak after the big 3. It's possible the ceiling is always limited on a guy like Braun, since he's not really a great shooter or primary initiator. However, with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green leaving the Nuggets, and Cancar tearing his ACL, there is a huge opportunity for Braun to step into a bigger role. And really, with Luka, Tatum, and Edwards handling the scoring, the Thunder really just need Braun to be a fill in the gaps guy, something he is certainly capable of doing.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Seth Curry Curry was a massive disappointment last year, especially since he looked solid in Brooklyn following the Harden trade. Unfortunately, that Nets situation was a mess, and Seth was never really totally healthy. He heads back to Dallas, a place he had some success a few years back playing off Luka, and the hope is that he can get back to the volume three point shooter he was not long ago.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Luka Doncic SG: Anthony Edwards SF: Jayson Tatum PF: Aaron Gordon C: Onyeka Okongwu UTL: Bogdan Bogdanovic UTL: Christian Braun
STRENGTHS: Threes Tatum, Luka, and Edwards are all big time three-point shooters (from a fantasy perspective), so chances are good that this team will always be in contention in that category. Throw in Bogdan and a good Seth Curry year, and they should absolutely be formidable here. Beyond that, it's kind of tough to see how this team competes anywhere else.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, FT% Only Okongwu averages more than 1 block per game. And for a team with some high volume free throw shooters, they don't shoot a particularly good percentage. Luka, especially, is the killer. He took 10.5 free throws per game last year, and he shot just 74%. Tatum kind of helps that (85% on 8.4 attempts per game), but that's about it. With their dearth of big men, they really can't afford to be a bad free throw shooting team, so Edwards and Luka are going to really have to make a leap there.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Can the others do enough to get Luka, Ant, and Tatum to the playoffs? Simply put, things here are... bleak. Since they made the playoffs and won the play-in in 2022, the Thunder have lost Russell Westbrook, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Clint Capela, Coby White, and Jae Crowder. They really haven't been able to replace them. They've also seen Davion Mitchell take a giant step backwards. As it stands, this team might just have the worst depth in the league. According to ESPN's player rankings (for H2H category leagues), the Thunder only have 6 players in the top-175. Only the Hawks and Suns have fewer players, and both of those teams are currently in rebuilds. And really, it's a shame the roster is in this shape considering the top-3 is truly great. The current owner inherited Tatum and Luka, but they made an incredibly savvy move to grab Edwards and Vassell for Devin Booker, saving themselves a re-sign and picking up a blue chip prospect. With how good the top-3 is, they really just need gap fillers. They found a couple in Aaron Gordon and Okongwu, but there's just not much else there beyond those two. Still, the top-3 are so good that they can still beat anyone in any given week. Just how good are they? Well, here's the list of guys that averaged 25 points, 5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.5 threes, and 1 steal last year: Luka, Tatum, Kyrie... that's it. Anthony Edwards was just 29 total points away from joining that group. It's not inconceivable that the Thunder could have three 25/5/5 guys on the roster next year. There were only 7 of those guys in the entire LEAGUE last season. It would be an incredible feat to have three of those guys, and an even more incredible feat to have three of those guys and miss the playoffs.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Make it out of the play-in and push the top seed With the top heavy roster, the Thunder are going to have a tough time in any two-week playoff match-up. However, could the the Thunder sneak into the last playoff spot with a .500 record and win the play-in round? With Tatum, Luka, and Ant healthy? Absolutely, they could do that. The real question is if that is the best thing long-term. The Thunder will try and compete because, when you have three of the best players in the league, you kind of can't sit back and wait... but if they miss the playoffs, they could be looking at 2 top-10 picks and roughly $12 million in space. The Edwards kicker comes into play next season, but given he seems to be heading for a max or near max re-sign, next year might be the window.
LOW-END OUTCOME: The roster collapses, they miss the playoffs This seems like the most likely outcome. It's just really hard seeing the Thunder, even with these three guys, finishing in the top half of the West. They're almost certainly going to pull off some upsets throughout the year, but the league is just too deep for a roster this thin to survive. Just look at their starting schedule. Golden St., Houston, Colorado, Kansas City. Could Luka, Tatum, and Ant go crazy in one or two of those weeks to pull out a win? Sure. Does each of those teams have the better players 4-10? Without a doubt. There are real questions about how much guys 10-14 will even play this year. Let alone guys 7, 8, and 9. Who knows, maybe Patrick Baldwin will surprise us all. We're not optimistic.
OUR PROJECTION: 7-9, 4th in Midwest
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Miege22
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 12, 2023 12:05:51 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 3-13, 5th in Pacific, missed playoffs
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Zion Williamson
- Anfernee Simons
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
- Mason Plumlee
- Emoni Bates
LOST
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Jusuf Nurkic
- Frank Kaminsky
- RJ Hampton
BIG MOVE: Traded for Zion Williamson Buddy, the Gamblers are ready. It's been a long 8 years in Las Vegas. After bursting onto the playoff scene in 2013, Vegas broke through to their first Finals in 2015 behind the likes of Kyrie Irving, Eric Bledsoe, Gordon Hayward, and Tyson Chandler. That 14-2 season ended in a loss to one of the great Tampa Bay teams of the past, but it appeared that the Gamblers were going to start a nice run at or near the top of the Western Conference. Unfortunately, after a 6-2 start the following year, they crashed to a 9-7 finish and missed the playoffs. That started a run of 8 straight years outside the post-season. The last 5 of which they finished at the bottom of the division, something only two other teams have done (Colorado from 2011-2015 and Chicago, six times, from 2010-2015). They've also lost to their arch rivals in Kansas City each of those 5 seasons, falling behind in that series all-time, which surely grinds the gears of those in Vegas. After the 2021 and 2022 draft lotteries landed them the #1 picks, which they used on Cade Cunningham and Chet Holmgren, the Gamblers finally decided to push their chips to the center of the table for Zion Williamson. The upshot here is the Gamblers now have three young potential superstars to build around. The downside is that all three have pretty extensive injury histories. Out of a possible 410 games over the last two years (two seasons for Zion and Cade, one for Chet), those three have played just 105 games. Vegas is clearly gambling (eh, gambling, get it?) that those three aren't suffering from any serious long-term problems. If that is the case? They'll be one heck of a trio.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Chet Holmgren OK, this is kind of cheating since he didn't play last year, but if Chet stays healthy, he should put up some pretty eye-popping numbers. In college he put up 14-10-2 with 3.7 blocks and 1.3 threes while shooting almost 61% from the floor. And he did all of that in just 27 minutes per game. The summer league returns were positive; he averaged 16.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3.5 blocks, though his shot wasn't quite there yet. It's likely that the Thunder ease him into the grind, so expect some smaller numbers this year. If he can stay on the floor though, he has a shot to be the best fantasy big man in the league not named Jokic.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Kelly Oubre Another one that's kind of cheating (though not as much as it would have been to put Ricky Rubio here). Oubre took advantage of a lord of the flies situation in Charlotte to average 20 points, 5 boards, and 2.3 threes. He has not yet been signed by the Hornets, or any other NBA team. He's obviously too good to not get picked up eventually, but there is no way he's coming close to those numbers next year, wherever he ends up (he averaged 17 shots per game last year!). If he does get signed, expect his numbers to look closer to his last year and a half in Washington, as he will likely be put into a minor 3-and-D role.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Cade Cunningham SG: Anfernee Simons SF: Cam Johnson PF: Zion Williamson C: Chet Holmgren UTL: Steven Adams UTL: Klay Thompson
STRENGTHS: Unclear With this team being so dependent on three guys that have missed so much time recently, it's hard to adequately gauge where exactly this team will be in certain categories. There's a world where Zion and Cade both have the ball in their hands a ton and do a lot of distributing, leading to high assist numbers. There's a world where Cade vastly improves as a scorer, and the three highest volume players on this team also shoot it fantastically from the floor. There's a world where both Klay and THJ play more like their 2nd half selves than their first over a full season (Klay put up 24 ppg and 4.8 threes on 46% shooting from January to April; THJ averaged 16-3-2 and 3.6 threes after the all-star break). If that happens, this will be a formidable three point shooting team. There are a lot of question marks though.
WEAKNESS(ES): Steals, FT% One thing that won't be in question is this team's free throw shooting. It won't be particularly good. Zion almost single-handedly brings down this category, thought he doesn't shoot it too poorly, simply because of his volume. This team alos really lacks ball hawks, and the one guy who consistently picked up steals was Kelly Oubre. It's possible Cam Johnson ups that number since he did average 1.4 in Brooklyn post-trade (he also averaged 17/5/2 and 2.3 threes). There are a lot of swing players here, to say the least.
ONE BIG QUESTION... How good are Chet Holmgren and Cade Cunningham? Easily the most important thing the Gamblers need to know. It was a miserable couple of seasons, but it led to these two, so anything less than star status is going to a bit of a bummer. They've certainly selected the right archetypes. We pointed out the rarity of 25-5-5 guys in the OKC preview, and Cade Cunningham certainly has the outlines of a player who could potentially reach that threshold. He's averaged nearly 18 points, 5.6 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.7 threes, and 1.2 steals over his two injury-shortened seasons. It's not inconceivable that Cunningham could join that exclusive 25-5-5 club this year (though looking through players historically, year 4 might be a safer bet). The Gamblers also appear to have found the modern big man who can block shots and hit threes. Four players last year averaged at least 1.5 blocks and 1.5 threes: Jaren Jackson Jr., Brook Lopez, Myles Turner, and Kristaps Porzingis. If Holmgren averages just 7 rebounds, he'll join Porzingis and Myles Turner as the only three players to hit those numbers. It's an exclusive club, and based on the way the Thunder look like they'll want to use him, it's one he could join as soon as next year. If those two are truly stars, watch out for this Vegas team.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Cade and Chet are legit, the big three stays healthy, they sneak into the play-in It's possible the shaky depth keeps this from happening, but there's certainly more depth here than, say, OKC. If post-ASB THT shows up (18-5-6), then this team has 10 legitimate fantasy players. The key here, even more so than a lot of other teams, is health. Beyond the big three, Steven Adams and Klay Thompson have both had their own health issues. As it stands, it appears everyone on this roster is going to be healthy for the start of the season, and that's big as the team's first five games are against Portland, Utah, Phoenix, Golden St., and Atlanta. This team really wasn't far off last year (with four losses at 4-4-1 or 5-4), and with a good start, this team could be 3-2. Pull off just one upset, and a 4-1 start could potentially springboard them to that surprise playoff berth.
LOW-END OUTCOME: No one stays healthy, they send a top-5 pick to Houston That unprotected pick swap looms large here if the Gamblers are unable to keep everyone on the floor. Obviously the calculus here is that, even if the team misses the playoffs, they're still going to have their foundation with or without that 2024 pick. Of course, the Rockets do have the option of rolling that over to 2025, so maybe they decide to take a chance even if that pick is in the top-10. With so many swing players on this roster, it's hard to know for sure what was real last year and what wasn't. One thing we do know is that the big three has not been healthy. We'll see if that gamble pays off.
OUR PROJECTION: 5-11, 4th in Pacific
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Miege22
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Post by Miege22 on Sept 13, 2023 11:26:08 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 14-2, 1st in Pacific, Lost in the first round to Colorado
STATUS: Rebuilding
ADDED
- Jeremy Sochan
- Jaden Hardy
- Danilo Gallinari
- Keita Bates-Diop
- Jalen Johnson
- Kris Dunn
- Simone Fontecchio
- Julian Champagnie
- Charles Bassey
- Brandon Clarke
LOST
- Marcus Smart
- Jonas Valanciunas
- OG Anunoby
- Anfernee Simons
- Malcolm Brogdon
- Caleb Martin
- Kelly Olynyk
- Terance Martin
- Torrey Craig
- Killian Hayes
- Chris Boucher
BIG MOVE: Tore it down to the studs After a down 21-22, the Minnesota Timberwolves moved to Phoenix, became the Suns, and bounced back in a BIG way. They won 9 of their last 10 to finish 13-3 and claimed the 2nd seed. Unfortunately for the Suns, that's where it came to an end as the 3rd-seeded Kings pulled off the first round upset. Following that run, it was hard to figure out just where the Suns would finish in 22-23. They lost Mike Conley, Miles Bridges, Mitchell Robinson, and KCP from that team. Jonas Valanciunas and Malcolm Brogdon looked to be headed for lesser roles, and their big summer signing was going to miss the whole season (Lonzo Ball). The Suns opened up at #8 in the pre-season power rankings, but their range was as high as 2 and as low as 16. They ended up being an incredibly deep, and well-rounded team, finishing tied with Houston at the top of the league with a 14-2 record (they lost the tiebreaker for the #1 seed). Hopes were high entering the post-season, but they were short-lived as the powerful Swannies in Colorado rolled right through them. All year, the Suns had featured superior depth, which helped overwhelm opponent in the regular season. In the playoffs, though, they ran into an opponent that not only had similar depth, but far better star power, and it simply wasn't enough. With multiple players about to come off the books, and no real way to replace them, the Suns made a difficult decision. They decided to, essentially, start over. The only four players returning are Nikola Jokic, Aaron Wiggins, Andrew Nembhard, and Lonzo Ball (likely out the full year again). In return they brought in a number of interesting prospects (Jaden Hardy, Jeremy Sochan, Jalen Johnson, among others) and FIVE draft picks, including four in the 2024 draft. The Suns aren't going to be good this year. That's going to be a given. However, if they play their cards right, there's a path back to contention next season. They'll go into the off-season with 4 picks, over $30 million in cap space, a top-5 fantasy player under contract, and only a few spots to fill. With the right moves, this team will be back in the thick of it sooner rather than later.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jalen Johnson With John Collins finally out of the picture in Atlanta, there has been a lot of talk about Saddiq Bey and DeAndre Hunter moving into the PF slot. The thinking goes that Quin Snyder played a similar style in Utah, so that's what he'll look to do in Atlanta. Well, don't count out Jalen Johnson forcing his way onto the floor. Johnson started to get more minutes after Snyder showed up, and while it was a small sample size (15 games), he improved his numbers to 7/4.6/2.2 with 0.7 blocks and 0.9 steals. In the month of April (smaller sample size - 5 games - but still), he averaged 11.6/4.8/3.2/1.8/1.4, and showed nascent touch from the perimeter. With Trae Young and Dejounte Murray still there, along with Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu down low, don't expect Johnson to suddenly put up 15-5-5... but he has shown he's capable of contributing across the board. He's still only 21 (he turns 22 in December), and if his defense is real, he will be on the floor. What he does with those minutes is up to him.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Charles Bassey Bassey had already seen his role diminish last season after a surprising, semi-productive stretch early in the year. With Victor Wembanyama now in tow, don't expect Bassey to be a frequent contributor. He'll probably play here and there when Wemby is out, but it's going to be so sparse that he doesn't even really register as a fantasy player at the moment.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Andrew Nembhard SG: Aaron Wiggins SF: Jeremy Sochan PF: Jalen Johnson C: Nikola Jokic UTL: Jaden Hardy UTL: Keita Bates-Diop
STRENGTHS: Jokic Look, this is a team that's built to lose, so we had to give them something. Nikola Jokic was awesome last year. His scoring and rebounding numbers ticked down just a bit, but that was offset by a career high in assists and FG % (63.2%!). He's also been remarkably durable, only missing more than 10 games in a season once, which happened last year toward the end of the season with the Nuggets coasting to the top seed. He might be the safest fantasy bet in the league this year, and he will almost certainly put up another MVP-caliber season even as the Suns struggle in the cellar of the conference.
WEAKNESS(ES): Opportunity Basically everyone on this roster could be a really good player... one day. The things holding back a lot of these guys are really just experience and playing time. Is this same roster a playoff team in four years? It's entirely possible. It is talented. It's just really young.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Will any of their other 2024 picks hit? The Suns traded OG Anunoby for the hefty return of four first round picks, with the crown jewel being their own 2024. That pick will very likely be top-5. Beyond that? Who knows. The other three picks they own in that draft belong to New York, Miami, and Toronto. It's hard to see New York missing the playoffs, but could Miami? Could Toronto? Will either of those picks jump? If the Suns could come out of this year with two top-5 picks, they'd have to feel pretty good. This is a team that has been fairly consistent recently (3 double-digit win seasons in 4 years), so you know they probably aren't clamoring for a multi-year rebuild.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Sneak out a few upsets, still net the top pick, and two others in the top 10 We said it earlier, but this team is not making the playoffs. There's just no high-end outcome where that happens. That's ok, though, because it's going to come down to May for this Suns team. If they can grab a few wins along the way to keep things interesting, that's really a bonus. Jumping up to #1 in the lottery, then landing, say, 6 and 8 via the Raptors and Heat, would be a big time win for this group.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Winless and a lotto drop Here's your disaster scenario. In this set-up, the Suns not only get crushed for four months, but they have to watch as their pick drops all the way to fifth... and all three of the Knicks, Heat, and Raptors make the playoffs. They'd still enter the off-season with a top-5 pick and a boatload of cap space, but it would have to be a real kick in the pills knowing what could have been.
OUR PROJECTION: 0-16, 5th in Pacific
BONUS CATEGORIES!!!
MOST LIKELY TO FALL OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS I'm not sure this category needs a long explanation. The Suns designed their roster to miss the playoffs. We think they'll be the prime candidate to not return. Fairly simple.
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