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Post by Miege22 on Sept 28, 2023 10:56:43 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 11-4-1, North Champions, Won NBA Finals (1st title)
STATUS: Contender
ADDED
- Andrew Wiggins
- Chris Paul
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Kelly Olynyk
- Sasha Vezenkov
- Vasilje Micic
- Jett Howard
LOST
- Derrick White
- Harrison Barnes
- Jeremy Sochan
- Clint Capela
- Christian Wood
- Kyle Lowry
- Miles Bridges
BIG MOVE: Traded Sochan and Hardy for Valaunciunas and Olynyk It took a half decade, but the stars finally aligned for the New York Knicks. When teefbe took over a moribund Boston Celtics franchise, it looked like a multi-year rebuilding job. Instead, by year 2, he had the team at the top of the East with the 2nd best record in the league. Unfortunately, as regular season wins piled up, postseason success never seemed to follow. For three straight years, the Celtics lost to the Tampa Bay Bull Sharks in the first round. After moving to New York, and again finishing with the best record in the conference, the Knicks finally got out of the first round... only to lose, again, to the Tampa Bay Bull Sharks in the ECF. Last summer, the Knicks took a new tact. After impressively building up a stable of stars, they moved Donovan Mitchell for a load of depth. CJ McCollum, Harrison Barnes, and Christian Wood all came in return. All three played huge roles in their playoff run, making it through the entire 6 weeks. Embiid was the easy Finals MVP, but make no mistake: the Knicks don't win the title without the Mitchell move. Now, with Barnes and Wood on the move, the Knicks decided to go all-in on winning a second straight title. They traded key young players in Sochan and Hardy for veteran contributors in Jonas and Olynyk. It's a bold move, especially considering the league hasn't had a repeat champion since the Nets in 18 and 19. Are they better? Possibly. Is the rest of the league better. Almost certainly. Still, they're the favorite in the East until they're not.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Grant Wiliams It was an unusual ending for Grant Williams in Boston. It started to receive DNP-CDs, despite being a solid defender and developing into a reliable three-point shooter. Now in Dallas, it seems unlikely we'll see a Lauri Markkanen-type of leap. HOWEVER, he's the exact kind of piece the Mavericks appear to need next to Kyrie and Luka. At the very least, we should see Williams receive consistent minutes for the Mavericks, and the Knicks here are going to reap the rewards. Would it be a surprise for Grant to crack double digit points per game and at least 2 threes? We think not.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Chris Paul Pretty straight-forward here. While Paul may start out in the starting line-up for the real life Warriors, we don't expect that to last... and that may actually help his fantasy production. Though maybe we'll see a set-up similar to the one he had in Houston with James Harden, where both started, then Chris came off early to lead the second unit. Either way, 32 minutes per game just won't be on the table, and the ball will have to be put in the hands of Draymond and Steph, which will take away opportunities from Paul. That will likely lead to a decrease in fantasy production, though maybe he can offset that with better shooting (an area of his game that fell off last year).
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Markelle Fultz SG: CJ McCollum SF: LeBron James PF: Andrew Wiggins C: Joel Embiid UTL: Jonas Valanciunas UTL: Chris Paul
STRENGTHS: Points, Assists, FG % The only non-rookie on this roster that averaged fewer than 10 ppg last year was Grant Williams, and we covered his new role. This is a team that is going to score, and they've got three big time bucket getters in Embiid, James, and McCollum. They also had 6 players averaged more than 4 assists per game last year, tops in the entire league. They're also buoyed by the fact that both James and Embiid average over 20 shots per game, and both make 50% or more of those shots. This team might not be as deep as last year, though we'll have to see what happens with Micic and Vezenkov.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks There's not a lot to pick from here. Initially we thought about free throw %, but LeBron actually had a nice bounceback year at the line and Joel Embiid is a monster at the line. This team will also be solid on the boards... so the one area that could be a bit of a problem for them is blocks. Outside of Joel Embiid, there's really no one on this team that blocks shots. After jumping over 1 block per game in 21-22, LeBron dropped back to a more normal (for him) 0.6. Jonas Valanciunas has declined in blocks per game each of the last five years, blocking a career low 0.7 per game last year. Maybe Andrew Wiggins blocks more shots now that he'll be forced to play more minutes as a power forward?
ONE BIG QUESTION... Can they stay healthy enough to repeat? Last year really was a perfect storm for the Knicks. Joel Embiid turned in an MVP-performance, then managed to make it through an entire post-season, something he hasn't consistently done (though it was the second year in a row last year). LeBron has missed a lot of games the last couple of seasons, and given his age, that should continue to be the case. Chris Paul is old and has an extensive injury history. Andrew Wiggins missed a huge chunk of last season. CJ McCollum is coming off off-season surgery. That said, this comes down to Embiid. If he is healthy, he is good enough to keep the Knicks in the hunt. This team is deep enough that they can afford to lose a few in the regular season, as we saw last year. They just need these guys on the floor when it matters in the playoffs.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Champions The star talent is there. The depth is there. The championship winning owner is there. This is still one of the two or three best teams in a revamped, and reloaded, Eastern Conference. The expectations have been set. It's championship or bust for the Knicks.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Injuries abound, a spot in the play-in awaits Maybe we're more bullish on this team than we should be, but that's doesn't mean we see no downside here. Both LeBron and Embiid have checkered injury histories (LeBron more recent, Embiid the opposite). There are also a lot of players on this roster in a state of... transition, let's say. It's not out of the question to see injuries cause a bit of a struggle for this team during the season, dropping them into the play-in. Now, if everyone is healthy when they get there, we think they should get through that round... but then you're talking about a semi-final match-up against the East's best team (potentially #2 in our preview???), and that's where the title defense likely comes to an end.
OUR PROJECTION: 12-4, North champions
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 2, 2023 13:15:48 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 7-8-1, 3rd in Southeast, missed playoffs
STATUS: Contender
ADDED
- Donovan Mitchell
- Mikal Bridges
- Dorian Finney-Smith
- Delon Wright
- Oliver Maxence-Prosper
LOST
- Paolo Banchero
- Obi Toppin
- TJ McConnell
- Jonathan Isaac
BIG MOVE: Traded for Donovan Mitchell It was a frustrating 2023 season for the Memphis Grizzlies. After struggling through an injury filled 21-22, Memphis entered with the expectation that they'd at least compete for a playoff spot... and that was, kind of, accurate. However, they opened the season 1-4-1, and it looked like things were going to be miserable for essentially the whole season. The rebounded, somewhat, going 6-4 the rest of the way, which included two wins over rival Miami. Unfortunately, that tie (that ridiculous tie, the first in league history) with the Knicks kept them from sneaking into the postseason. It was another disappointing finish in a series of disappointing finishes for a franchise that was, not long ago, at the pinnacle of the league for three years straight. From 2017-2019, the Grizzlies went 46-2, culminating in their first Finals appearance. Since that series started, though, seemingly nothing has gone right. Injuries devastated them in those Finals, and they lost to the Brooklyn Nets. Since then, Memphis has finished 7-9, 5-9, 2-14, and 7-8-1. They've failed to make the playoffs in any of those seasons. This year looks to be different. The Grizzlies swapped out two firsts for Mikal Bridges, then they made the move of the summer... cashing in on Paolo Banchero's excellent rookie campaign to land Donovan Mitchell. After keeping the Kings in the playoff hunt almost by himself (he had a lot of help from SGA, to be fair), Mitchell goes to a stacked Grizzlies team looking to finally make a dent in the East. This team might just have the best top-7 in the entire conference, and that won't even include Trey Murphy initially. It's not an all or nothing season for this Grizzlies team, but they are set up to compete in a way they simply haven't over the last four years.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Mikal Bridges Bridges exploded onto the fantasy scene after being traded to the real life Nets. His scoring output managed to go from 17 ppg to 26 ppg, while somehow improving his efficiency. He more than doubled his FTA per game. He saw a small dip in assists and defensive stats, but that was to be expected in the trade (plus some of that could be noise). Now that he's had a full off-season in Brooklyn, look for him to continue to be the number 1 scoring option. His 26 ppg scoring averaged would have put him 14th in the league last year, just behind Donovan Mitchell, his new teammate.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Trey Murphy III We initially had DeAndre Ayton in this spot with a bunch of alarming stats from his short time playing alongside KD, Booker, and CP3. Then he was traded and all of that work went out the window. In fact, we probably should have put him in the breakout category since we fully expect Ayton to reach the 20-10 mark this season. In his place, we'll go with Trey Murphy who, sadly, tore his meniscus a few weeks ago. He's going to miss the first couple months of the season, and he will no doubt be worked back in slowly given the depth the Pels have at the wing position. It's a real shame too because he may have been a guy set-up to break out. He averaged 18 ppg post-ASB last year, with some real explosive single game outings, and he averaged 3.4 threes and 1.4 steals post-ASB. Here are all the players last year that averaged 3+ threes per game and 1.2+ steals: Donovan Mitchell, Buddy Hield, LaMelo Ball... that's it. Memphis could have had two of those guys this year. We'll have to see how he gets back into rhythm during our playoff push.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Jrue Holiday SG: Donovan Mitchell SF: Kawhi Leonard PF: Scottie Barnes C: DeAndre Ayton UTL: Mikal Bridges UTL: Bennedict Mathurin
STRENGTHS: Points, Threes, Steals Five players on this Memphis roster averaged 2+ threes per game last year, not including Ben Mathurin or DFS. They also have a whopping 8(!) who averaged 1.1+ steals. If Kawhi stays healthy, they've got five guys on this roster capable of 20-4-4 every single night. They're incredibly well-balanced, and they would certainly put their top-end talent up against any other team in the league.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, Rebounds The major, glaring weaknesses on this roster are big man stats. Outside of Ayton, they really don't have any other true big men, and Ayton has never really been a big shot-blocker. No one on this roster averaged more than a block per game last year. That said, one area that's typically a big man stat where Memphis actually does quite well is in FG%. Kawhi, Mitchell, Holiday, and Bridges are all high volume shooters that shoot it pretty well from the floor (Bridges was the worst at 46.8%). That said, look for boards and blocks to be a struggle (might a team like the Nets prove to be a thorn in their side?).
ONE BIG QUESTION... Will the end of the bench give them anything We were originally going to go with Kawhi staying healthy, but we're sure everyone involved is tired of beating that dead horse. Instead we'll focus in on guys 8-14 which are... shaky, at best. Don't get us wrong, Delon Wright and DFS are nice players that can be helpful in very specific areas. But the ceiling there is limited. Johnny Davis was an abject disaster last year, so while there's nowhere to go but up for him, up is still pretty bad. Oladipo is hurt, and we're surprised he hasn't been waived. Roby likely isn't playing much, if at all, this year. We already mentioned Murphy being hurt. They just signed O-Max, who might play a little bit in Dallas, but is still an unproven rookie. Then you have Shake Milton, who's always been more fun to talk about than roster (Shake Milton is unquestionably a top-10 name in the NBA). More so than any of the other contenders in the East, this team is top-heavy. While the Knicks have injury concerns, if the Grizz lose a guy or two for a week, they're going to have a whale of a time replacing them. We're obviously bullish on their prospects, but the depth, or lack thereof, is scary.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Champions Like all our other contenders, the goal here is the title. Is there a world where Kawhi and the gang stay healthy (enough) for six weeks to take down all comers and win the first title in franchise history? Absolutely. As we mentioned, the top-end talent on this roster is ridiculous. Being able to roll out Mitchell, Kawhi, Barnes, Bridges, and Holiday 7-8 times in a playoff series can paper over a lot of weaknesses. An ideal scenario might look something like finishing first, blitzing Toronto in the first round, taking out a banged-up Knicks team, then getting Portland in the Finals (we think there could be some issues going up against a team like Houston, that does what they do but better, or a team like Colorado with dominant bigs). Even if they don't get the job done this year, this team is very well set-up to stay competitive for the foreseeable future.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Can't stay healthy, depth can't help, they miss the play-in This is an extreme scenario, but not an unreasonable one. Kawhi is almost certainly going to be a part-time player this season. Losing Trey Murphy for 3 months has already chipped away at this shallow team's best depth piece. Jrue is aging. If they can't keep guys healthy, if guys are in and out of the lineup, there are enough swing teams in the East to, shockingly, push Memphis back into the lottery. They all have bigger question marks, which is why we have Memphis in the top-2, but we don't know the answers to those questions
OUR PROJECTION: 11-5, Southeast champions
BONUS CATEGORIES!!!
TEAM TURNAROUND Goes without saying, but this is the one team in the league we expect to have the biggest turnaround from last year to this year. A projected six-win improvement would allow them to take that title rather easily. The pieces are there for them.
EC LOTTO TEAM MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS We actually have a couple of lotto teams from last year's East jumping into the playoffs this year, but the Grizzlies are the safer bet. Even if things don't go perfect for them, they'll still have the talent to compete for a spot, something our other projected team cannot also say.
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 3, 2023 10:20:28 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 8-8, Southeast Champions, Lost in first round to Toronto
STATUS: Contender
ADDED
- Jamal Murray
- D'Angelo Russell
- PJ Washington
- Kyle Lowry
- Royce O'Neale
- Eric Gordon
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.
- Dereck Lively II
- Bilal Coulibaly
LOST
- Mike Conley
- Tyus Jones
- Dennis Schroder
- Joe Harris
- Kevin Love
- Alec Burks
- Jose Alvarado
- Doug McDermott
- Terrence Ross
- Montrezl Harrell
BIG MOVE: Traded for Jamal Murray and D'Angelo Russell Despite a fifth straight division crown, last year was a disappointment for this franchise that has gotten used to playing for bigger things come February and March. After starting 6-1, the wheels came off for Tampa, and they limped to the finish line 8-8, serving as nothing more than first round fodder for a younger, healthier, Toronto Raptors team. The loss to Toronto snapped a run of 4 straight conference finals appearances (tied with Brooklyn for 2nd most behind Utah's 5). In fact, prior to last year, they'd made the ECF 7 times in 8 seasons, a record only matched by the Nets. With Sabonis and KAT holding down the frontcourt, the Bull Sharks went to work reshaping the backcourt. After trading Jamal Murray to Utah two years ago, they brought him back for the third pick in the draft. They cashed in another future first to bring in D'Angelo Russell (they used a third draft pick to bring in PJ Washington). Suddenly, the Bull Sharks featured one of the better starting 5s in the league. It is not out of the question that all five of Murray, Russell, LaVine, Sabonis, and KAT average 20+ ppg (though Russell and Sabonis will probably come up just short). They were all very well-rounded last year, as each averaged at least 3+ rebounds per game and 4+ assists. Both Murray and Russell are major upgrades that should slot in nicely next to their current big 3.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jamal Murray If the playoffs are any indication, Jamal Murray is back. He was solid last regular season, but given the time he missed with his knee injury, the Nuggets were clearly trying to ease him back into the season. He missed 17 games and played only 32 minutes per game. When the real life playoffs came around, they took off the training wheels and reaped the benefits of a truly remarkable playoff run. Murray put up 26-6-7 with 1.5 steals and 3 threes with shooting splits of 47/40/93. Now, he won't average those counting stats next season simply because he's not going to play as many minutes as he did in the playoffs (he averaged 40 minutes per game). However, a fascinating potential comparison here is Kyrie Irving. After breaking his knee cap in the 2015 Finals, the Cavaliers brought Irving back slowly the following year. He played less than 32 minutes per game and averaged just 19.6 ppg. That postseason, he averaged 25-3-5 with 1.7 steals and 2.4 threes with 48/44/88 shooting splits. The next full season, Irving had what was, to that point, the best season of his career. 25-3-6 on 47/40/91 splits. Given the way pace and shooting have changed since 2017, Murray seems poised to top those numbers this year.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Kyle Lowry There's no getting around it... Kyle Lowry is getting old. He turns 38 in March, and his age really started to show last season. Lowry averaged fewer points last season than he had in any of the previous 13 seasons, and it was one of the worst shooting seasons of his career. He also averaged just 2.5 free throw attempts per game last year, the fewest of his career. The real life Heat may have lost Gabe Vincent in free agency, but it's hard to see them suddenly turning over a bulk of the possessions to Lowry. At this point, Lowry is an end of bench depth piece for the Bull Sharks, and nothing more.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Jamal Murray SG: D'Angelo Russell SF: Zach LaVine PF: Domantas Sabonis C: Karl-Anthony Towns UTL: PJ Washington UTL: Eric Gordon
STRENGTHS: Points, Threes This is a team that's going to score. As we pointed out above, it's not inconceivable that this team could have 5 20+ ppg scorers. And that's before getting into Branham and Gordon, two guys who can score in bunches. They also make a lot of threes. Six players on this team averaged 2+ threes per game, and both Gordon and Lowry finished just shy of that mark at 1.9. As long as KAT and Sabonis stay healthy, they should be competitive in boards. That said...
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, Steals This team does not defend. We're not sure what happened to KAT. As a rookie, this guy averaged 1.7 blocks per game and looked like someone that was going to be on a monster on both ends. He's been on a downward trajectory ever since, bottoming out at just 0.6 blocks per game last year. Now, you can blame some of that on playing next to Gobert, pulling him away from the rim, but not all of it. Not when a guy like Evan Mobley is blocking 1.5 shots per game playing next to a true center. As time has gone on, KAT has simply focused less and less on the defensive side of the ball (his rebound and steal numbers last year were also career lows). Given that Sabonis is also not a shot-blocker, a lot is going to fall on PJ Washington (somehow 1.1 blocks per game last year) and Dereck Lively (a rookie who might not play much right away). No one on this team averaged more than 1 steal per game last year. Maybe the rooks can help in those categories. We'll see.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Do they have the depth? After the top-8 it gets pretty sketchy. While Jaime Jaquez could have a role right off the bat, he Lively, and Coulibaly are all rookies who don't project to be major parts of their respective teams' rotations. Royce O'Neale's shooting completely fell off a cliff last year, and his opportunities will only shrink if Ben Simmons returns (lol, but still, we have to mention it). Kyle Lowry we talked about. Marcus Morris was straight not in the Clippers rotation by the end of last season. That's a lot of flotsam to deal with. The top-6 should be good enough to win most weeks in the East, but that depth could cost them when the games matter most.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Champions If they're healthy and playing to their ceilings, this top-5 is as good as any in the league. Perhaps no team in the league has been as successful as the Tampa Bay Bull Sharks. They've made the most playoff appearances in league history (12) participating in all but two postseasons. They're tied with Brooklyn for the most conference finals appearances of any team in the league. They have the 2nd most titles (3, one shy of Brooklyn). They're one of only two teams in the league to win back-to-back titles (along with Brooklyn). They have the fourth most regular season wins all-time (behind only Utah, Brooklyn, and Houston). Simply put, this is a franchise that knows how to win. Even with the relative lack of depth, there are pieces to rectify that. If this team is in the hunt, which we think they will be, expect to see some moves at the deadline to shore things up.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Bench falls apart, they miss the playoffs, send a lotto pick to Brooklyn/OKC Of course, at the same time, past success does not guarantee future success. Tampa Bay may have over a decade of winning to fall back on, but that doesn't change the fact that there are real problems at the end of the bench. If none of the rookies hit, and Russell and PJ take small steps back, the door for some of the teams below them (Brooklyn, Toronto, Washington, etc.) swings WIDE open. If the worst happens, and they miss the playoffs? They're sending a top-10 pick to either the Nets or Thunder, and they'll be left to pick up the pieces next summer.
OUR PROJECTION: 9-7, 2nd in Southeast
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 4, 2023 12:44:01 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 8-8, 2nd in Southeast, Lost in first round to New York
STATUS: Playoff Hopeful
ADDED
- OG Anunoby
- Mike Conley
- Caleb Martin
- Jalen Suggs
- Richaun Holmes
LOST
- Khris Middleton
- Chris Paul
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
- Lu Dort
- Kenrich Williams
BIG MOVE: Traded for OG Anunoby Three assists. That's what stood between the Heat and a date in the Eastern Conference Finals. After a 3-7 start in which it seemed they could not stay healthy, the Heat turned it on late to finish 8-8 and roar into the playoffs. They dispatched the Wizards in the play-in, and, with everyone finally healthy, they looked like the contender many thought they would be prior to the season. After a back-and-forth first round in which it looked like the Heat might actually pull of the impossible, Markelle Fultz, Grant Williams, and Derrick White combined for 15 assists on the final day to save the top-seeded Knicks. New York went on to win the title. Miami was left to figure out where they went wrong. Ultimately, that culminated in their big move of the off-season... trading FOUR first round picks, and Isaiah Livers, for OG Anunoby. OG ostensibly replaces Khris Middleton in the lineup, and just based on numbers last year, it's a major upgrade. With most of the roster returning, will that upgrade (along with Mike Conley replacing Chris Paul) prove to be enough to get them over the hump?
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jabari Smith Jr. Look, you should never get overly excited about summer league. However, you do want to see second year players perform well in that environment, and holy hell did Jabari Smith look good. In two games, Smith averaged 36-7-4, made 3 threes per game, and shot 49% from the floor. He was so good in those two games, the Rockets refused to let him back on the floor. They'd seen enough. Does that mean Jabari is going to come out this year and be a top-15 fantasy player? Probably not... but it's certainly not a bad thing. Consider Trey Murphy, who didn't do much in his rookie year, then went out in summer league and 27-7 on 50% shooting. He parlayed that summer league performance into a significant statistical bump last year. The same thing happened with Desmond Bane the previous year (and Max Strus, albeit to a lesser extent). The bottom line is if Jabari is going to be that guy, he needed to do what he did in summer league.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Alex Caruso We... don't know what the real life Bulls are doing, and that's not a good sign for Alex Caruso, a player who's fantasy prospects were already limited. Caruso improved his efficiency last year, though his counting stats largely dropped. The Bulls went out and signed Jevon Carter, a player who not only plays the same position as Carsuo, but who is the same archetype of player. Caruso will surely play if healthy, but what will his role be playing alongside not only Carter, but Dosunmu and Coby White, two guys who think they should be getting real minutes next year? It's hard to say, and for that reason, we are a little grim about AC's fantasy prospects.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Mike Conley SG: Tyler Herro SF: OG Anunoby PF: Jabari Smith Jr. C: Jarrett Allen UTL: Wendell Carter Jr. UTL: Keegan Murray
STRENGTHS: Steals, FT % With the additions of Anunoby, Conley, and Jalen Suggs, there are some certified thieves on this team. Anunoby, of course, led the league in steals per game. Caruso was tied for 11th at 1.5. Suggs wasn't far behind at 1.3. He may be the most interesting case of them all. He started out the season on a tear, swiping 22 steals in his first 13 games. Then he got hurt, and it took him a while to work his way back into game shape. Once he did, he picked up 37 steals over a 23 game stretch from February to April. He also hit 39% of his threes from February until the end of the year. If the Magic give him a real role, Suggs could be an under the radar MIP candidate.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, Points Much like KAT, we're really not sure what happened to Wendell Carter Jr.'s shotblocking ability. After averaging 1.3 blocks per game as a rookie, WCJ has topped 1 per game in any season since, falling to a career low 0.6 last year. The only player on this team that averaged more than 1 block per game last season was Jarrett Allen, and it seems that his totals are being eaten into by his precocious teammate, Evan Mobley. Offensively, this is not a prolific bunch. Tyler Herro averaged the most ppg last on this team at 20.1. 18 other teams had at least one player on their roster last year that averaged more than that. The only team that didn't was the Brooklyn Nets. No one else on the roster was really even all that close to the 20 ppg mark, and 7 of them averaged fewer than 10 ppg.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Which versions of Caleb Martin and Richaun Holmes are the Heat getting? We singled these two out because these are by far two of the bigger swing players in the league. The case of Caleb Martin might be the most bizarre one to figure out in the entire league. After a solid pre-ASB showing of 10-5 with 1.3 threes, he saw fewer minutes post-ASB and fell to just 8.6 ppg. Then, out of nowhere, he exploded. He put up 11-5-2 on 63/44/85 splits in the first round. He followed that up with a still solid 10.5-5 in the 2nd round... before throttling the Celtics in the ECF. He averaged 19/6/2/1 for the series on incredible 60/49/88 shooting splits. He then played like garbage in the Finals, putting up just 7.4 ppg. So which Caleb Martin is the real Caleb Martin? Is it the slightly above average role player we saw most of last year? Or is it the guy who showed up for a majority of the post-season? In a similar vein, what does a change of scenery do for Richaun Holmes? After two straight solid seasons with the Kings, Holmes was completely non-existent last year, appearing in just 42 games for 8 minutes per game. This is a guy who, just two years prior, average 14-8 with 1.6 blocks per game. The Mavericks will need a reliable role man this season. Are the Heat getting the Holmes of two and three years ago? Because if so, then they might have the depth to really make noise.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Bench is real, run to the Finals follows There's probably going to be some head-scratching as to why Tampa Bay was listed as a contender with the high-end outcome of a title, while Miami is listed as a playoff hopeful that could make a Finals run. For our money, it comes down to the top-end talent. Both teams have similar question marks on their bench, but the top-6 in Tampa is just flat better than the top-6 in Miami. Now that doesn't mean Miami can't make a run. If this team plays to it's a ceiling, it's a well-rounded bunch that can take down anyone in the East. They had a similar make-up last year and showed just how dangerous they could be, pushing New York to the brink. Ultimately, we don't like them enough to say they can win it all, but they can certainly get there and make someone sweat.
LOW-END OUTCOME: It never comes together, they send a top-10 pick to Phoenix The downside to a team that is made up, mostly, of specialists is that wheels can come off... hard. If guys like Suggs and Caruso aren't getting steals, there's not a lot of value there. Ditto for Keegan Murray's shooting and Mike Conley's table-setting. Now, if all of their guys live up to their ceilings in their best categories, they'll be just fine. If not? That pick they're sending to Phoenix gets real juicy.
OUR PROJECTION: 9-7, 3rd in Southeast
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 9, 2023 9:10:23 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 1-15, 5th in North, Missed Playoffs
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Devin Vassell
- Austin Reaves
- Victor Wembanyama
- Scoot Henderson
- Coby White
- Amen Thompson
- Ausar Thompson
- Leonard Miller
LOST
- Jalen Suggs
- Isaiah Joe
- Tari Eason
- Cam Thomas
- Moses Moody
- Ousmane Dieng
- Jaylen Nowell
- Tre Mann
BIG MOVE: The Lottery The Brooklyn Nets were bad last year. Like, really, really bad. After a miserable pandemic season resulted in a 1-13 record, the Nets went spending in free agency to try and get back into the playoffs. It worked, they went 10-6 and finished 3rd in the East, but they ended up trading away all their free agent gets anyway. That led to last season's pitiful 1-15 finish, but... it ended on a high note? The Nets turned into one of the rare "eliminated from the playoffs buyers" at the deadline. They cashed in a number of picks to bring in Jaren Jackson Jr., Dyson Daniels, and Moses Moody. Moody has since been dealt, but JJJ was given an extension and hopes are high for Daniels. The big, no, seismic, move this off-season? The Nets won the lottery. Not only did the win the lottery, they also jumped up to the 2nd pick. Both picks belonged to other teams. The top pick they landed from OKC in a trade for Seth Curry before the year. The 2nd pick came from Seattle, which the team acquired from Kansas City for Brandon Ingram in the middle of last season. When the dust settled, the Nets had drafted Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson (they also moved up, down, and around to pick up the Thompson twins and Leonard Miller, more on them later). With two new foundational pieces locked in, Brooklyn went hard after Austin Reaves in free agency and landed Devin Vassell in the historic 11-team deal at the end of the summer. With a real roster in place, the Nets are looking to become just the 3rd team in league history to make the playoffs after winning fewer than 2 games the previous year (18 teams have won fewer than 2 games in a season). They've done it once previously, in 2022 as mentioned above. The other team to do it? The 2014-2015 Tampa Bay Bull Sharks, who went 10-6 and won the title one year after going 0-16. This is not a team used to losing. They won the division 9 times in the league's first 11 years, and one of those years they finished 2nd and won a title. The last three years they've gone 12-34; only Las Vegas has been worse. Can this team get them back to the promised land?
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jonathan Kuminga There are actually quite a few players that could be listed here. Kuminga, Evan Mobley, Austin Reaves, Shaedon Sharpe, JJJ, and Coby White all saw fairly significant post-ASB jumps. However, we're going with Kuminga for the simple fact that the real life Dubs sorely lack the things Kuminga brings, and he should have plenty of opportunities to make an impact. Post-ASB last year, Kuminga averaged 13-4-2 on 57% shooting. The numbers may not be spectacular, but that's not what Brooklyn needs. They're solid, and Brooklyn needs solid. If things break right, Kuminga projects to be something like the 8th or 9th man on this team. At just 21 years of age, there is still a lot of potential left for Kuminga to tap into.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Jalen Duren? Just given the nature and make-up of this team, it's hard to pin down a real "step back" candidate. The guys who will produce the least are probably the rookies, but there's nothing for them to step back from. Even the guys in crowded situations (Duren, White) had improved 2nd half numbers last year in spite of those situations. Since it looks like White is going to get the first crack at the starting point guard job, and Duren turned his ankle in the Pistons' first pre-season game, we'll give the early nod to Duren for this ignominious spot... though it'll probably be something closer to "stagnant" candidate than step back. If he does see his numbers drop from last year, Brooklyn is in a bit of trouble.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Scoot Henderson SG: Austin Reaves SF: Devin Vassell PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. C: Victor Wembanyama UTL: Evan Mobley UTL: Shaedon Sharpe
STRENGTHS: Steals, Blocks Again, young team with 5 rookies, but this team looks like they're going to be an absolute menace on the defensive end. We know that JJJ and Evan Mobley will block shots. I think we can safely assume Wemby is going to block his fair share. This team should challenge Colorado for total blocks this season. Steals is where it gets a bit sketchier. The Thompson twins and Dyson Daniels project to be big steals/deflections guys, but they'll need to get the playing time for that to bear out. The Pistons started Ausar in their first pre-season game, Trey Murphy is on the shelf for the first couple months, and KPJ is out in Houston, so opportunities are there for all three.
WEAKNESS(ES): Points, Threes, FT % We just don't have enough evidence to comfortably say that this team will compete in points and threes. The Austin Reaves signing went a bit under the radar, as the Nets clearly saw they were lacking from the line and went out and got a guy who can really get there and knock them down (he shot 86% from the line on 6.3 attempts per game post-ASB). JJJ also showed promise in that area in the 2nd half (80% on 6 fta per game). Beyond that, we just really don't have much to go on. Threes should almost certainly be a weak point given all the rooks they brought in don't project to be high volume shooters, which is probably a big reason they targeted Vassell and Coby White. And when you combine a lack of FTs (and poor shooting) with a lack of threes, it explains the potential lack of points.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Are the kids ready? This is not just about the rookies... all 5 of them. This includes 2nd year guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Jalen Duren, and Dyson Daniels. It includes 3rd year guys like Evan Mobley and Jonathan Kuminga. This is by far the youngest team in the league. Austin Reaves is the "old head" at 25. The average age is just 21.5. We've touched on it already, but there was a lot, post-ASB last year, to get this team excited about coming into the season. Reaves and Sharpe saw MASSIVE statistical leaps with bigger roles, without sacrificing efficiency (Reaves even dramatically improved his efficiency, which is seemingly unheard of). Mobley and JJJ both saw modest, but statistically significant bumps (again, without hurting their shooting percentages). White and Kuminga looked like different players. Still... five rookies is a lot. Leonard Miller almost certainly won't play much at all, but Brooklyn will need at least 3 of the other 4 to produce. And that's a big ask. Over the last 10 years, just 28 rookies averaged 15+ points (that includes Marvin Bagley in 2019 with 14.9 pts). That's the pessimistic take. The optimistic take? 23 of those 28 have come in the last 6 years. More and more guys are coming in to contribute, and the core-4 of rookies on this team look like they're going to get all the opportunities they could ask for.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Win the play-in There has been a trend in the NBA, going back for a long time now, that young guys start to get more playing time as the season goes on, particularly if the team they're on is bad (which it usually is, just given how the league is set-up). That, theoretically, should play into the Nets' hands. Now, some of those situations are unique (the Spurs have already signaled they are going to be very cautious about Wembanyama's workload this year), so it may not hold true for their entire roster... but this IS a team loaded with young talent that has either established itself as a necessary contributor (Reaves, JJJ, Mobley, Vassell), or is on a bad team and should get minutes (Henderson, Wemby, Sharpe, Duren, Ausar). Glass half-full? The young guys might not score, but they get minutes and fill in the gaps enough to get this team into the conference semis, where they push their in-city rival Knicks to the brink.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Kids need time, they send a top-5 pick to Washington Brooklyn traded their 2024 in last year's deal to land Keldon Johnson. That's just part of the reason they're so hopeful for Jonathan Kuminga. This team is so loaded with young talent, that losing a potential lottery pick won't kill them, but it would not doubt be a bummer. Of course, they still have two picks in the 2024 draft, and literally every player on this roster is under contract for next year, so, you know, first world problems.
OUR PROJECTION: 8-8, 2nd in North
BONUS CATEGORIES!!!
PROJECTED ROY: Scoot Henderson Calling our shot on this one... we have the dynamic point guard Scoot Henderson beating out his teammate, and the top pick, for rookie of the year honors this season. Make no mistake, we do think Wembanyama will up numbers worthy of the award, but Scoot will likely play with the ball in his hands for the majority of the season, and that should help him make a clear and immediate impact, something the Nets will need if they want to get back to the playoffs.
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 10, 2023 10:43:57 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 7-9, 4th in Southeast, Missed Playoffs
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Derrick White
- Rudy Gobert
- RJ Barrett
- Miles Bridges
- Jonathan Isaac
- Taylor Hendricks
LOST
- Terry Rozier
- Jalen Smith
- Isaac Okoro
- Mo Bamba
- James Bouknight
- Kai Jones
BIG MOVE: FA Shopping Spree The Magic have been something of an enigma in the 14-year run of this league. Orlando has only finished better than 9-7 twice in their franchise history. They've made the playoffs just 4 times, and they haven't been there since 2018. Only the Gamblers have a longer active playoff drought. Knowing all that, the Magic went into this past summer looking to make a real change, and boy did they. This team replaced some real zeroes with legitimate fantasy contributors (RJ Barrett may be a bit maligned from a fantasy standpoint, but he's replacing James Bouknight who did nothing). The Magic somehow went 7-9 last year with, to be blunt, a fairly bad roster. Now, that happened in large part because they caught some early schedule breaks (they started 4-2, then went 3-7 in their last ten). This team maybe had 4 or 5 real fantasy players. Now, they can go legitimately 10 deep, and, unlike the Nets, who they will be battling with, all 10 players actually have a proven track record. If there's one sleeper team here to upend their division, it might be these Magic.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jordan Poole Could it be anyone else? After a very good postseason with the Warriors, hopes were high for Jordan Poole. He got the big extension, the team was talking him up as their "two timelines" success story, and many probably figured he'd start to siphon off some of the Curry/Klay possessions as those two got older. Then Draymond Green punched his lights out, and he suffered through the season from hell. He goes to a new situation in Washington where he will be the main scorer, alongside Kyle Kuzma. When he started last year for Golden State, he was quite good. 25/3/5 with 3 threes and 89% free throw shooting on 6 attempts per game. Those are top-5 SG fantasy numbers if he can keep it up this year. The shooting percentage could be a bit rough, but the Wizards aren't going to sit him for taking shots.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Collin Sexton Sexton never really put it together last year in Utah. Coming off a major knee injury that cost him essentially the whole season, he stepped into a new situation where it seemed like he'd get first crack at the point guard job. Then THT and Kris Dunn showed up, now Keyontae George is there... oh and Lauri blew up and they traded for John Collins. Three years ago, Collin Sexton averaged 24 points per game. He's only gone down since then, and Utah suddenly has a lot of mouths to feed. Maybe Sexton can completely revamp his game and become a real contributor in assists. It seems unlikely.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Derrick White SG: Jordan Poole SF: Franz Wagner PF: Miles Bridges C: Rudy Gobert UTL: Nic Claxton UTL: RJ Barrett
STRENGTHS: Points, Blocks There might not be any BIG TIME scorers on the roster (though Jordan Poole obviously could be - and ESPN thinks he will, projecting him to average just under 29 ppg), but seemingly everyone in the top-10 should be double-digit scorers. We're also just a year removed from Miles Bridges putting up 20 ppg, and he's back. If anyone in the bottom four gets real minutes (Reddish, Jackson, Isaac, Hendricks), they could have 11 double-digit guys. Where Jackson should help, if he gets minutes, is in blocks. Jackson's per-minute block numbers are crazy (3.3 per 36), but whether he plays with the Pacers now deep at the big man spots is open question. Fortunately for Orlando, both Gobert and Claxton should see plenty of minutes, and they averaged almost 4 blocks per game between them last year.
WEAKNESS(ES): Assists, FG % It might seem odd to have FG % as a weakness, given they have Gobert and Claxton, but Jordan Poole and RJ Barrett really hinder any efforts to win that category. Last year, they averaged 31.7 shots per game and shot just 43%. That's not going to be completely offset by what Claxton and Gobert do. From an assist standpoint, they're really banking on Derrick White seeing a dramatic jump in that category, an outcome that seemed far more likely pre-Jrue Holiday trade.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Will a worthy re-sign candidate emerge? What made Orlando's free agent spending so interesting wasn't that they just flat out got better, it was the strategy behind the bidding. Orlando went all in on one year deals, with the idea that one, two, or maybe even three of those free agents would be a re-sign worthy player. The Magic have not used any re-signs in this window, and there is one year left. At one point in time, Rudy Gobert received a re-sign. Miles Bridges would have been re-signed last year had he not committed just a heinous act against his partner. RJ Barrett is still very young and could drastically improve. Maybe one of those re-signs goes to a guy already on the team in Jordan Poole? Maybe they trade for a re-sign worthy player. Who knows. We've seen teams go spending on big one-year deals in FA to land re-sign worthy players (Nikola Jokic, Kyrie Irving), but we've never seen a team make it their whole strategy. It's a fascinating move, and it's going to make Orlando the epicenter of the league next summer, no matter what happens.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Make a surprise run to the ECF We initially had a first round ceiling on this team, but the more we look at this roster, we see no reason this team couldn't pull an upset in round one and get back to the ECF. It's a place they've been twice before, and while we don't think the third time would be the charm, this team is deep enough, and well-balanced enough, to win in the playoffs. If they get anything from Jonathan Isaac? Watch out.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Miss playoffs, but not bad enough to jump in the lotto We've said already that this team was much improved, but the problem for the Magic is that the rest of the conference also dramatically improved. Memphis got better. Brooklyn got much better. Washington got better. The Knicks, Heat, and Bull Sharks are still going to be very good. There are going to be teams in this conference that, on paper, look better than last year... and finish the same or worse than last year. Just going to be how it is in this conference... the flip side though? This thing is wide open. Sure there are favorites, but the wild cards have the talent to actually win.
OUR PROJECTION: 7-9, 4th in Southeast
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 12, 2023 15:51:29 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 8-8, 3rd in North, Lost play-in to Miami
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Gordon Hayward
- Obi Toppin
- Zach Collins
- Moses Moody
- Cason Wallace
LOST
- Deni Avdija
- Mason Plumlee
- Jalen Johnson
- Jaxson Hayes
- Justise Winslow
- Chuma Okeke
- Hamidou Diallo
BIG MOVE: MPJ signing The Wizards, like the Magic above them, were a good example last year of the state of the East. Just take a look at the players Washington "lost" this off-season. There was a lot of dead weight on this roster last year, and yet, the team finished .500 and made the playoffs. It's been an interesting few years for the Wizards. After two postseason appearances, and two losses, in the league's first 7 years, the Wizards exploded in 2017. They went 14-2 and made the Finals, then followed it up the next year with an ECF appearance. Then... nothing. Washington didn't make the playoffs for four years, but they never really bottomed out either. They were on the periphery of playoff contention, seemingly stuck in the mud. Even last year, they started 3-1, then went 1-6, then won 4 of their last 5 to sneak into the playoffs... where they lost fairly soundly to the Heat. The good news for Washington is that Giannis is still a fantasy stud. If he stays healthy, the Wizards will be in every match-up. Jalen Brunson and Desmond Bane is a legit backcourt to put next to him. And the crown jewel of the off-season, Michael Porter Jr., will give the Wizards wing depth they sorely lacked last year. This team is talented enough to make some noise, the question is will the East cannibalize itself?
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Obi Toppin We could not be more excited about Obi Toppin's fantasy prospects playing in the up-tempo Indy system next to a point guard like Tyrese Haliburton. Already this pre-season, Toppin's jumper looks much improved, and this is a guy that put up crazy stats in his limited starts (22-3-3, 1.2 steals, 3 threes, 58/90 splits) last year. In case you thought those were fluky, the previous year, he averaged 20-7-3, 2.4 threes, 57/82 splits in 10 starts. We wouldn't anticipate scoring quite that high with the weapons the Pacers will have next to him, but Toppin's numbers are sure to take a major bump.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Gordon Hayward Even with Miles Bridges now in the hot seat again, it's hard to figure out exactly what Gordon Hayward's role is going to look like. His numbers were ok last year (15-4-4, solid efficiency), but he missed 32 games, and he's not getting any younger. Plus the Hornets added Brandon Miller, who they're surely going to want to try and develop this year. In years past, Hayward would be a sure top-7 guy. Now? We're not so sure.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Jalen Brunson SG: Desmond Bane SF: Michael Porter Jr. PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo C: Daniel Gafford UTL: Obi Toppin UTL: Jaden Ivey
STRENGTHS: FG % Last year, Giannis, Brunson, Bane, Gafford, Collins, and MPJ combined to shoot 42.2/81.1, or 52% from the floor. That's a SIGNIFICANT chunk of their field goal attempts, and try as he might, Jaden Ivey is not going to significantly bring that down. He's the only real weak point on this roster from a field goal percentage standpoint (possibly Keon Johnson, but it remains to be seen how much he'll actually play).
WEAKNESS(ES): FT % This is a pretty easy one. For as great as Giannis is, he tanks free throw percentage. He just does. He shot 64.5% on 12.3 attempts per game last year. The rest of this team shot just 78.8% (22.7/28.8). Put it all together, and this team clocked in under 75% from the line last year (74.45%). Going to be tough to win the category most weeks at that number. In fact, that would have won in just 9 match-ups last year... out of 160.
ONE BIG QUESTION... What will they get out of Toppin, Gafford, and Moody? As so often happens, the spotlights burns the brightest on a team's swing players, and the Wizards are no exception. They can be reasonably confident in what they'll get out of Giannis, Bane, and Brunson, and guys like Hayward, Porter, and Collins have probably hit their respective ceilings. However, these three are guys that have shown flashes of fantasy upside, yet haven't quite put it together, in large part due to their roles. All three should see a rather significant uptick in minutes, and all have a chance to make Washington one of the most dangerous teams outside "contender" status. We touched on Toppin already, so we'll jump right to Gafford, who is now the unquestioned top big in Washington with Porzingis out of the way. After a mid-season deal sent him to Washington two years ago, Gafford turned a bigger role into better numbers (10.1 ppg and 1.8 blocks in just 17 minutes). However, things stagnated, and despite starting 100 games the last two seasons, Gafford has been unable to crack even 21 minutes per game. He still produced quite well on a per-minute basis (his per-36 last year? 16-10-2 with 2.2 blocks), but you don't win match-ups based on per-minute production. Washington needs him to, finally, play. Moody is a fascinating case as he appeared to make in-roads with Kerr in Golden State's postseason loss to the Lakers. He can really shoot it, though the percentages don't quite show that yet. The Warriors lost quite a bit of depth from last year, and that means there's a golden opportunity (no pun intended) here for Moody.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Pull off a first-round upset, lose in the ECF You can see it, can't you? The rest of the East beating up on each other, leading to a surprise 3rd seed for the Wizards. Then Giannis, Bane, and Brunson go crazy for two weeks to pull an upset. It's all right there, and unlike other potential swing teams in Brooklyn and Orlando, the Wizards are led by a bona fide fantasy superstar.
LOW-END OUTCOME: The swing guys miss, miss the playoffs The margins in the conference are so thin, that multiple dead roster spots can sink you. Right now, Keon Johnson looks like one such dead spot. Cason Wallace can defend his behind off, but OKC is so deep, he might be a second dead spot. Add that together with the questions surrounding Giannis' knee? It gets a little fuzzy, even if a couple swing guys hit.
OUR PROJECTION: 6-10, third in North
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 16, 2023 8:49:32 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 9-7, 2nd in North, Lost ECF to New York
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
- Jordan Clarkson
- Christian Wood
LOST
- Jarred Vanderbilt
- Brandon Clarke
- Goga Bitdaze
BIG MOVE: Jordan Clarkson signing The Toronto Raptors accomplished something last year that they hadn't done in the first thirteen years of the league: they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. That's right, in their 9th playoff appearance in franchise history, the Raptors, finally, advanced to the conference finals. They may have lost to the Knicks, but just getting there marked a massive achievement for a franchise that has seemingly been competitive since the league began. Toronto responded by... essentially standing pat. Sure, there's a lot of young talent on this team that should improve (Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Green, Jalen Williams, Keldon Johnson, Ochai Agbaji), but with Ja out for, essentially, the first nine weeks, there is a massive hole to fill. And this team went out and grabbed Jordan Clarkson and Christian Wood in the offseason. Clarkson is a solid player who should bring about 70-75% of what Morant does, but there's no real clue as to what Wood's role with the Lakers will look like. As we've mentioned in previews up and down the Eastern Conference, there are a lot of improved teams on this side. Just keeping pace with last year is going to be difficult, unless some of those aforementioned young guys take giant leaps forward.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Tobias Harris It was really tough to find a player who was truly set up to "break out." We initially looked at Precious Achiuwa, but with Poeltl getting a full off-season, and Siakam and OG somehow still there, that didn't make enough sense. Instead, we'll go with a vet who could be in line for a bigger usage, Tobias Harris. It remains to be seen what happens with James Harden, but the one thing we do know is that Tobias Harris is going to play. Harris has managed to play 72+ games three of the last four seasons, and if Harden is gone, expect Harris to get a pretty sizable bump in attempts. It's more than possible we see something closer to the 20-7 guy he was when he first showed up to Philly, rather than the 15-6 guy he was last year.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Aleksej Pokusevski We think there's a real change Poku won't see anything more than garbage time minutes with Chet back at it. Poku was a surprisingly useful fantasy player for the short stretch he was healthy last year, as he was one of the rare "1+ threes, 1+ blocks" players. Unfortunately, real life Poku just... wasn't that good. The Thunder were clearly better without him, and now that they have a guy who plays the same role and is just better than him healthy, it's hard to see where he fits on the floor. It also looks like he's going to start the season the shelf, as he sprained his ankle a few weeks back. He may end up seeing action for a couple weeks this season, if only because the Thunder are surely going to be cautious with Chet, but he's just not going to be reliable enough.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Tyrese Haliburton SG: Jalen Green SF: Jalen Williams PF: Tobias Harris C: Precious Achiuwa UTL: Keldon Johnson UTL: Jordan Clarkson
STRENGTHS: Assists, Threes It's hard to do a projection for this team since Ja is such a big part of it, and he's missing over half the season. However, when he does get back, this team is going to absolutely crush assists. Last year, Hali was 2nd in assists, while Ja was 7th. When both guys are playing, they're enough to win that category by themselves. No team in the East really comes close to that from an assist ceiling standpoint. This team also has no problems chucking and ducking. 11 of the 13 players on this roster made more than 1 three per game.
WEAKNESS(ES): Blocks, Rebounds Last year, only Poku and Christian Wood put up more than 1 block per game. With both of their roles looking much smaller than last season, the Raptors are going to be hard-pressed to field any player with at least 1 block per game this year. Frankly, the big man situation is a problem here, so naturally rebounds would also be an issue. A big man group of Achiuwa, Wood, Poku, Wiseman might be the worst of any team in the league, even the tankers (Phoenix has Jokic, and Atlanta... ok, maybe it's better than Atlanta's). The East actually has a number of teams with a lot of big man depth, so Toronto is going to be behind the 8-ball in any traditional big man category most weeks.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Can they survive Ja Morant's absence? At the end of the day, it's not only the big question, it's the only question. With Ja Morant on the floor, this Raptors team can hang with anyone. Without him, things are dicey. Right now, his projected return comes at the end of week 9. They'll obviously have played at least the first round of division games, and the first four games upon his return are Miami, Memphis, Brooklyn, New York. It's possible, if not likely, that this team is eliminated from playoff contention by the time that four-game stretch is over. We should have some idea of their chances by the end of week 4. After opening with the Knicks, the Raptors face Chicago, Washington, and Brooklyn. All three of those games are ones they'd surely expect to win with Ja on the floor. If they can go at least 2-1, their chances of surviving that absence probably increase dramatically. Anything less than 2-1, and it's going to be a real uphill climb.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: NBA Finals Maybe it's crazy, but the top-end talent is absolutely there. Ja and Hali are bona fide fantasy superstars. If the Raptors can sneak into the postseason, presumably Ja will be back on the floor, and they will be the type of team no higher seed would want to face over a two-week stretch where Ja and Hali could have 7-8 games a piece. The Raps were one step away last year, but were basically eliminated before the ECF started with Ja being out (and Hali only played a couple of games). As we've seen time and again, if you have elite talent, all you need to do is get into the playoffs, and anything can happen.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Miss the playoffs, send a top-10 pick to Phoenix More than likely, this is the outcome. Ja is out. Basically every player on this roster is in a less favorable fantasy situation than they were last year, save maybe Chris Duarte. Whether James Wiseman and Poku even play is an open question. There are still two roster spots to be filled. Things just don't look particularly promising. Of course, a lot can change. The Raptors opened last year's power rankings in the 15th spot before finishing with the 2nd best record in the East. It's possible they do it again. We'll just have to see.
OUR PROJECTION: 6-10, fourth in North
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 17, 2023 14:02:35 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 7-9, 4th in North, Missed playoffs
STATUS: Play-in Battleground
ADDED
LOST
BIG MOVE: Nothing Did George Costanza move into the Bulls' front office? After a tough, injury-plagued season, the Bulls looked like they were going to sneak into the playoffs, as they entered the final 3 weeks 7-6. Then they lost to the Heat, Nets, and Knicks and missed out by a game. The team responded by... standing pat. They brought back Marjon Beauchamp in the offseason (he was on a D-League deal, so he's an "addition" in our book), let Nick Richards walk, and called it a day. Where the Bulls slot into the East is a tough call. They've been almost exactly .500 the last six years (48-46), but one of those years was their miraculous run to the title. Since then, it's been back-to-back 7-9 seasons, where they've been frisky, but not quite consistent enough. There's real talent here (Fox, Porzingis, LeVert) and talent with upside, theoretically, still available to grab (Maxey, Bey, Pat Williams), but for whatever reason, it just hasn't meshed. Maybe this is the year the role players hit, and a second miracle run happens.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Tyrese Maxey "Grab Philly players not named Harden" is really turning into a theme here. Last year, Maxey was a bit overhyped from a fantasy perspective. He could score, but he wasn't doing much else (20-3-3.5). However, in thirteen games without James Harden last year, Maxey put up 25-4-5, 1.1 steals and 3.2 threes. If the 76ers trade Harden, or he sits for whatever reason, Maxey is going to have the ball in his hands. And if he's putting up those kinds of numbers, it'll be time to take him a little more seriously as a fantasy player.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: Cole Anthony This was Kristaps' spot before the Timelord trade made him essential to what Boston wants to do. We also though about Caris LeVert, but there's a chance to he has more creation opportunities with real shooters alongside him. We'll settle on Cole Anthony who will almost certainly see his minutes squeezed, if not right off the bat, then surely later in the season. More importantly, the touches just aren't likely to be there. Anthony played 6 fewer minutes per game last year than the season before that, and that trend will probably continue this year. Anthony Black is probably a year away, but they'll certainly want to get Ingles, Suggs, and Harris in the rotation more. On the plus side, while Anthony's counting stats, naturally, declined, his efficiency went up, which is a reason for hope.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: De'Aaron Fox SG: Tyrese Maxey SF: Caris LeVert PF: Patrick Williams C: Kristaps Porzingis UTL: Ivica Zubac UTL: Cole Anthony
STRENGTHS: Points Assuming their role guys get minutes, points should not be an issue. Guys like Cole Anthony, Saddiq Bey, Dillon Brooks, and Caris LeVert are all shoot-first players. Last year, 10 of the 14 players on this roster averaged double-digit points. Three of them were 20-point-per-game scorers. The key will be playing time.
WEAKNESS(ES): FG %, Steals The flip-side to employing score first players is that this team is loaded with CHUCKERS. Dillon Brooks and Saddiq Bey, especially, have yet to meet a shot they don't like. Cole Anthony and Caris LeVert aren't that much better, and both can have some maddening back and forth games (LeVert may have been the first guy to ever follow up a 40-point game with just 1-point). This team also doesn't really get after it defensively. Only LeVert (1) and Fox (1.1) averaged 1 or more steals per game last year.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Just how much does the deep bench play? After their run to the title in 2021, the Bulls' bench has essentially fallen apart. Miles McBride and Darius Bazley don't play. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl might have a shot in Houston now? It seems unlikely given all the young kids there. Quentin Grimes, Marjon Beauchamp, and Saddiq Bey all seem like guys who might be more helpful in real life than in fantasy. That's six guys on the roster that just flat out can't be trusted. And if they can't even eke out consistent minutes, then it's hard to see this team making much noise next year.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Sneak into play-in Simply put, we are not bullish on this team's chances... no pun intended. We recognize that there's real talent at the top-end, which is why we think there's a shot they make the play-in. Anything beyond that seems highly unlikely. Too unlikely to even put out there.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Finishes 9th, gives up top-5 pick to Memphis Last year, the Bulls had to watch as their collapse resulted in the Nets getting an additional lottery pick. This year looks like it could be much the same outcome, as their 2024 is currently owned by the Memphis Grizzlies.
OUR PROJECTION: 6-10, fifth in North
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 19, 2023 13:27:16 GMT -5
2022-2023 FINISH: 6-10, 5th in Southeast, Missed playoffs
STATUS: Rebuilding
ADDED
- Malik Monk
- Tari Eason
- Keyonte George
- Cam Thomas
- Dennis Smith Jr.
- Jaylin Williams
- Nick Richards
- Jarace Walker
- Ousmane Dieng
- Jordan Walsh
LOST
- Jaylen Brown
- D'Angelo Russell
- Mitchell Robinson
- Larry Nance Jr.
- Royce O'Neale
- Josh Richardson
- Trey Lyles
- Isaiah Hartenstein
- Delon Wright
- Charles Bassey
- Josh Christopher
BIG MOVE: Full rebuild mode After a tough season in which nothing seemed to go right, and the injuries piled up all over the place, the Hawks made the bold decision to tear it down this summer. The only players returning are Kyrie, Ben Simmons, DeVonte' Graham, and Nikola Jovic. Kyrie is still a legit fantasy star (when he plays), and Jovic had a nice showing in the FIBA World Cup, but Graham seems unlikely to play, and Simmons simply can't be trusted. There's a lot of buzz about Simmons being back and healthy, but from our view, he doesn't look much different now than he did to start last year. The real story is all the young talent Atlanta brought in. They picked up Jarace Walker and Keyonte George in the draft, traded for rookie Jordan Walsh, and traded for both Tari Eason and Ousmane Dieng. Walker and George, in particular, have a lot of hype, though it seems like they could be a year or two away. The Hawks only have one pick in each of the next two drafts, but they do have three picks in 2026. That should line up nicely with the young guys on this team, all of whom they should know whether they're contributors or not by then. After winning the first title ever, then making the ECF the following year, the Hawks have only made the playoffs 3 times the next 12 years. They're 0-3 in those appearances. This is the first time they've jumped headfirst into the rebuild pool. It will be fascinating to see what happens.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Nikola Jovic It's all there for Jovic to become a contributor this year. Granted, we had this prepped when we thought he was going to be in Portland (oops), but the opportunity is still there in Miami. The Heat are old. They're going to need a young guy to step up and play a real role. While the numbers didn't jump off the page (10/3/3) at the WC, he played really well on a balanced Serbian team that finished 2nd to the Germans. Can Jovic come in and be a spot-up guy who attacks closeouts? We don't see why not.
STEPBACK CANDIDATE: DeVonte' Graham Raise your hand if you knew Graham averaged 1.6 threes per game last year? OK, put your hand down, liar. Graham actually got decent minutes in San Antonio the 2nd half of the year and averaged 2.7 threes and 13 points. Of course, the Spurs were blatantly tanking, and Graham shooting 38% from the floor was wildly helpful in that regard. Based on the Spurs playing around with Sochan at PG this pre-season, and all the young guys they have, there's no way Graham comes close to 20 minutes per game. In fact, we'll put the over/under on games played at 41.5.
PROJECTED TOP-7 PG: Ben Simmons SG: Kyrie Irving SF: Tari Eason PF: Jarace Walker C: Jaylin Williams UTL: Malik Monk UTL: Cam Thomas
STRENGTHS: Turnovers Look, we're not trying to make light of the roster here, but it's hard to find any categories that are actually "good" categories. Possibly assists if Simmons is back, but even then, you're really only talking about him and Kyrie. What we DO know is that this roster is filled with a lot of guys who probably aren't going to play a ton, and that's going to limit their turnovers. So that's where we're at.
WEAKNESS(ES): Basically everything else They have 3 rookies and 6 guys who didn't crack 20 minutes per game last year. Could help percentages, I guess, but any counting stat is going to be tough for them... unless George and Walker get minutes right off the bat.
ONE BIG QUESTION... Is this the year Ben Simmons comes back? .... probably not. I'm not trying to be mean here. Ben has been talking a big game, and people are hyping up his return. He's averaging less than 6 shots per game and has taken a total of 7 free throws in 4 pre-season games. Pre-season, I know, but the guy looks the same as he did to start last year, though maybe a tad quicker. Unfortunately for the Hawks, Simmons has one more year after this. If he does look ok, Atlanta should probably get off him for whatever they can get.
HIGH-END OUTCOME: Pull off a few upsets, avoid a bottom-5 record Maybe the schedule lines up, the Hawks can get up to 3 or 4 wins, and the bottom falls out for some other teams. The Hawks are sending their pick to Toronto, more than likely (there's technically a chance they keep it and GS' pick goes to Toronto), so they'll want to make that pick as bad as they possibly can.
LOW-END OUTCOME: Lose every game The Hawks don't play the Suns this year, meaning they're going to be a serious talent disadvantage in every single match-up. It's hard to go winless. It's only happened 4 times in 12 non-shortened seasons. Between Atlanta and Phoenix, this could be the first time since 2014 (and only the 2nd time ever) that two teams go winless in the same season.
OUR PROJECTION: 0-16, fifth in the Southeast
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Post by Miege22 on Oct 20, 2023 9:17:15 GMT -5
And with that, we're done. My apologies, HawkEye, if you felt at all shafted by the length of your preview. I'll admit, I ran out of steam with the last few teams in the East.
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