Mid-point Check-In
Feb 8, 2021 18:20:56 GMT -5
Kots (Colorado GM), fernans (MIAMI HEAT), and 1 more like this
Post by Miege22 on Feb 8, 2021 18:20:56 GMT -5
We're now halfway through the season, so I thought it would be nice to do a quick reset and take a look at where the playoff race and lotto odds stand. We'll start with the playoff race in the East:
1. Miami Heat (6-1)
Key Wins: Chicago, Memphis
Key Losses: Orlando
The Heat might not have any fantasy superstars, but they've got a number of solid guys playing well across the board. Draymond Green has returned to the floor to put up one of the weirder lines we've ever seen, but he's definitely been a net positive. There is some room for growth here with how poorly Oubre and Bertans have played, and a possible increase in PT for Chuma Okeke and Kira Lewis. The Heat have some big games remaining against Boston and Tampa Bay, but they have to like we're they're at.
2. Boston Celtics (5-2)
Key Wins: Tampa Bay, Seattle
Key Losses: Orlando, Chicago
I was going to stick with only conference games for the key wins/losses category, but Boston's win over Seattle deserves a special shout-out. This team was teetering on the brink going into that game. They'd lost a stat corrected tiebreaker to Orlando and got waxed by Chicago. With Seattle, Utah, Tampa and Miami to play in the next five weeks, Boston missing out on the playoffs would not have been surprising. Instead, they regrouped to knock off Seattle, and they haven't lost since. If they beat Miami this week, not only will it likely punch their ticket, but they could be looking at finishing first in the conference. Joel Embiid has been an absolute monster, and he is competing with Nikola Jokic for fantasy MVP.
3. Tampa Bay Bull Sharks (5-2)
Key Wins: Chicago
Key Losses: Boston
Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine have been really good, but somehow, someway, it's still LeBron leading the charge. Outside of those three, though, Tampa has been a tad disappointing. They'll still make the playoffs, barring something catastrophic, but this isn't quite the juggernaut I think some envisioned. They're probably going to need to improve their depth before the playoffs.
4. Chicago Bulls (4-3)
Key Wins: Boston
Key Losses: Tampa Bay
A fascinating team to follow as they initially appeared to have no depth, then were wildly deep, then got wracked by COVID and injuries at the same time. Now they're mostly healthy again, and they've comfortably slotted into the fourth spot in the conference. Vuc, Spida and Middleton are all playing as well as you'd want them to. Randle has been a revelation. And their rookies have contributed. They've proven to be just a solid team, and they're in the driver's seat to get the fourth spot.
5. Orlando Magic (4-3)
Key Wins: Miami, Boston, Atlanta
Key Losses: Memphis
This team is DANGEROUSLY close to being 0-7, having won two tiebreakers and two other match-ups by the skin of their teeth. Still, they're here, in the thick of the playoff race. They've relied on bit players going off at just the right time, and with injuries piling up, that doesn't seem like a recipe for success moving forward. Still, they've got at least two wins left on the schedule, which means they probably just need to find two more to get in.
6. Atlanta Hawks (3-4)
Key Wins: Washington
Key Losses: Chicago, Orlando
Had they beaten Orlando and Chicago, two match-ups that they legitimately could have won, we'd probably be talking about Atlanta as the fourth playoff team. As it stands, they're now behind the 8-ball against the two teams they'd need to leapfrog. Combine that with a sudden rash of injuries, and a very difficult closing schedule, and the outlook isn't great.
7. Memphis Grizzlies (3-4)
Key Wins: Orlando
Key Losses: Washington, Miami
A couple of devastating losses to Portland and OKC have made it almost impossible for Memphis to get in the playoffs without some serious help. To make matters worse, they're getting bombarded by injuries in the key part of their schedule. This team is probably the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the conference when healthy, but they just haven't been able to get to that point. If they can survive the next three weeks with at least one win (probably has to be against Chicago), then maybe they can make some noise down the stretch.
8. Washington Wizards (2-5)
Key Wins: Memphis
Key Losses: Atlanta, Tampa Bay
This team was dealt a crappy hand from the start because of a number of injuries. Then after making a trade and some FA signings to fix that, they got hit with more injuries AND COVID. It's led to a 2-5 start, but with games left against Orlando, Chicago, Boston and Miami, this team is far from out of it.
9. Toronto Raptors (2-5)
Playing for next year, there are no key wins or losses here. With two wins already in the bank, there's probably no shot of them dropping to the number 1 lotto odds spot, but the new flattened odds mean that matters little.
10. Brooklyn Nets (0-7)
Bad team, lots of picks, playing the lotto.
1. Portland Trailblazers (6-1)
Key Wins: Houston
Key Losses: Kansas City
Portland has most of their tough western conference games in the second half of the season, but they've already proven that they're a playoff team. KD looks like KD again. Paul George is turning in an MVP caliber season, and both Trae Young and John Wall have been good. This is a wing/guard heavy team, so it will be interesting to see what happens if they go up against a team with great bigs like Seattle.
2. Houston Rockets (6-1)
Key Wins: Kansas City, Utah
Key Losses: Portland
Their week 2 loss against the Blazers is the only thing standing between the Rockets and the number 1 seed. Last year in the West, that didn't matter. This year, though, it looks like the #1 seed will be highly coveted. There's a clear top-3 in the West, then a bit of a drop-off, so whoever lands that #1 seed will have a much easier first round opponent. Much like Portland, they're guard-heavy, but their bigs are young, so they could improve greatly in the second half.
3. Kansas City Kings (6-1)
Key Wins: Portland
Key Losses: Houston
The Kings have been a fun story, but with CJ and LeVert out for the foreseeable future, it seems highly unlikely this team will actually make the playoffs. They also took advantage of an extremely easy first half schedule (wins over Colorado, Vegas, Brooklyn, Toronto and Atlanta). Of course, they have banked 6 wins, and at the rate the West is going, 8 might be enough to sneak into the playoffs. Can they find two more wins on the schedule?
4. Seattle Supersonics (5-2)
Key Wins: OKC, Utah
Key Losses: None
It's probably only a matter of time until Seattle leapfrogs Kansas City into the third spot, and if they beat Minnesota this week, they can probably punch their ticket to the playoffs. James Harden isn't scoring as much since his real life trade to Brooklyn, but he is still racking up the assists. Beal has been incredible, and Bam and Rudy Gobert look great. The star power is still there on this team, even as the supporting cast has dropped off a bit (RoCo and PJ Tucker... yikes).
5. Utah Jazz (4-3)
Key Wins: OKC, Minnesota
Key Losses: Seattle, Houston
No one in the West, outside of Houston or Portland, has done more to help their playoff chances thus far than Utah. They're in a three-way tie for 5th, but they have already beaten both teams they're tied with, AND their remaining schedule is fairly easy. Vegas, Brooklyn, Colorado, Kansas City, and Golden State all remain. They probably don't even have to win all of those games to get in. Dropping one probably won't kill them (unless it's to KC). Much like Miami, this team is just full of solid dudes.
6. OKC Thunder (4-3)
Key Wins: Minnesota
Key Losses: Seattle, Utah
There's a world in which OKC is undefeated, given that all three of their losses were coin flips. Unfortunately for them, that's not the world we are living in, and they're almost certainly going to have to knock off one east power (Miami, Tampa Bay) and one of the top west teams (Portland, Houston) to get into the playoffs. There's enough star power here, that they could do it, as long as guys stay healthy.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3)
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: OKC, Utah
With losses to OKC and Utah, and games remaining against Seattle, Houston and Portland, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Wovles to make it back to the playoffs. Of course, it was roughly around this time last year that they upset Seattle and kickstarted an incredible run to the postseason, so who knows. Maybe history repeats itself. They do have the leader in the clubhouse for fantasy MVP, after all.
8. Colorado Swannies (1-6)
They're going to upset at least one, maybe two teams, in the second half of the season. They have enough talent to do it, and if it all comes together in the right week, it is going to ruin someone's season. It will be fascinating to see what this team does in the off-season with a top-7 in place and money to burn.
9. Golden State Warriors (0-7)
Similar to the Swannies, this team is going to knock someone off. Injuries and COVID have ruined the first half of the schedule, but it was a monster to begin with. It wouldn't be crazy for this team to run the table in the second half of the season, but they'll need to be healthy.
10. Las Vegas Gamblers (0-7)
Kind of disappointing they didn't try this past off-season. There are some good pieces here. Could have been frisky with a couple of good signings.
CURRENT LOTTO ODDS
1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Las Vegas Gamblers
3. Brooklyn Nets (via GS)
4. Brooklyn Nets (via COL)
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Brooklyn Nets (via WAS)
7. Kansas City Kings (via MEM)
8. Memphis Grizzlies (via ATL)
9. Brooklyn Nets (via ORL)
10. Brooklyn Nets (via MIN)
11. Kansas City Kings (via OKC)
12. Washington Wizards (via Utah)
Right now, Brooklyn is projected to have 6 of the top 10 picks. KC is projected to have two lotto picks. It is unlikely this is how things look in 7 weeks given remaining schedules. The only certain thing seems to be that Brooklyn, Vegas and Toronto will finish bottom three, in some order.
1. Miami Heat (6-1)
Key Wins: Chicago, Memphis
Key Losses: Orlando
The Heat might not have any fantasy superstars, but they've got a number of solid guys playing well across the board. Draymond Green has returned to the floor to put up one of the weirder lines we've ever seen, but he's definitely been a net positive. There is some room for growth here with how poorly Oubre and Bertans have played, and a possible increase in PT for Chuma Okeke and Kira Lewis. The Heat have some big games remaining against Boston and Tampa Bay, but they have to like we're they're at.
2. Boston Celtics (5-2)
Key Wins: Tampa Bay, Seattle
Key Losses: Orlando, Chicago
I was going to stick with only conference games for the key wins/losses category, but Boston's win over Seattle deserves a special shout-out. This team was teetering on the brink going into that game. They'd lost a stat corrected tiebreaker to Orlando and got waxed by Chicago. With Seattle, Utah, Tampa and Miami to play in the next five weeks, Boston missing out on the playoffs would not have been surprising. Instead, they regrouped to knock off Seattle, and they haven't lost since. If they beat Miami this week, not only will it likely punch their ticket, but they could be looking at finishing first in the conference. Joel Embiid has been an absolute monster, and he is competing with Nikola Jokic for fantasy MVP.
3. Tampa Bay Bull Sharks (5-2)
Key Wins: Chicago
Key Losses: Boston
Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine have been really good, but somehow, someway, it's still LeBron leading the charge. Outside of those three, though, Tampa has been a tad disappointing. They'll still make the playoffs, barring something catastrophic, but this isn't quite the juggernaut I think some envisioned. They're probably going to need to improve their depth before the playoffs.
4. Chicago Bulls (4-3)
Key Wins: Boston
Key Losses: Tampa Bay
A fascinating team to follow as they initially appeared to have no depth, then were wildly deep, then got wracked by COVID and injuries at the same time. Now they're mostly healthy again, and they've comfortably slotted into the fourth spot in the conference. Vuc, Spida and Middleton are all playing as well as you'd want them to. Randle has been a revelation. And their rookies have contributed. They've proven to be just a solid team, and they're in the driver's seat to get the fourth spot.
5. Orlando Magic (4-3)
Key Wins: Miami, Boston, Atlanta
Key Losses: Memphis
This team is DANGEROUSLY close to being 0-7, having won two tiebreakers and two other match-ups by the skin of their teeth. Still, they're here, in the thick of the playoff race. They've relied on bit players going off at just the right time, and with injuries piling up, that doesn't seem like a recipe for success moving forward. Still, they've got at least two wins left on the schedule, which means they probably just need to find two more to get in.
6. Atlanta Hawks (3-4)
Key Wins: Washington
Key Losses: Chicago, Orlando
Had they beaten Orlando and Chicago, two match-ups that they legitimately could have won, we'd probably be talking about Atlanta as the fourth playoff team. As it stands, they're now behind the 8-ball against the two teams they'd need to leapfrog. Combine that with a sudden rash of injuries, and a very difficult closing schedule, and the outlook isn't great.
7. Memphis Grizzlies (3-4)
Key Wins: Orlando
Key Losses: Washington, Miami
A couple of devastating losses to Portland and OKC have made it almost impossible for Memphis to get in the playoffs without some serious help. To make matters worse, they're getting bombarded by injuries in the key part of their schedule. This team is probably the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the conference when healthy, but they just haven't been able to get to that point. If they can survive the next three weeks with at least one win (probably has to be against Chicago), then maybe they can make some noise down the stretch.
8. Washington Wizards (2-5)
Key Wins: Memphis
Key Losses: Atlanta, Tampa Bay
This team was dealt a crappy hand from the start because of a number of injuries. Then after making a trade and some FA signings to fix that, they got hit with more injuries AND COVID. It's led to a 2-5 start, but with games left against Orlando, Chicago, Boston and Miami, this team is far from out of it.
9. Toronto Raptors (2-5)
Playing for next year, there are no key wins or losses here. With two wins already in the bank, there's probably no shot of them dropping to the number 1 lotto odds spot, but the new flattened odds mean that matters little.
10. Brooklyn Nets (0-7)
Bad team, lots of picks, playing the lotto.
1. Portland Trailblazers (6-1)
Key Wins: Houston
Key Losses: Kansas City
Portland has most of their tough western conference games in the second half of the season, but they've already proven that they're a playoff team. KD looks like KD again. Paul George is turning in an MVP caliber season, and both Trae Young and John Wall have been good. This is a wing/guard heavy team, so it will be interesting to see what happens if they go up against a team with great bigs like Seattle.
2. Houston Rockets (6-1)
Key Wins: Kansas City, Utah
Key Losses: Portland
Their week 2 loss against the Blazers is the only thing standing between the Rockets and the number 1 seed. Last year in the West, that didn't matter. This year, though, it looks like the #1 seed will be highly coveted. There's a clear top-3 in the West, then a bit of a drop-off, so whoever lands that #1 seed will have a much easier first round opponent. Much like Portland, they're guard-heavy, but their bigs are young, so they could improve greatly in the second half.
3. Kansas City Kings (6-1)
Key Wins: Portland
Key Losses: Houston
The Kings have been a fun story, but with CJ and LeVert out for the foreseeable future, it seems highly unlikely this team will actually make the playoffs. They also took advantage of an extremely easy first half schedule (wins over Colorado, Vegas, Brooklyn, Toronto and Atlanta). Of course, they have banked 6 wins, and at the rate the West is going, 8 might be enough to sneak into the playoffs. Can they find two more wins on the schedule?
4. Seattle Supersonics (5-2)
Key Wins: OKC, Utah
Key Losses: None
It's probably only a matter of time until Seattle leapfrogs Kansas City into the third spot, and if they beat Minnesota this week, they can probably punch their ticket to the playoffs. James Harden isn't scoring as much since his real life trade to Brooklyn, but he is still racking up the assists. Beal has been incredible, and Bam and Rudy Gobert look great. The star power is still there on this team, even as the supporting cast has dropped off a bit (RoCo and PJ Tucker... yikes).
5. Utah Jazz (4-3)
Key Wins: OKC, Minnesota
Key Losses: Seattle, Houston
No one in the West, outside of Houston or Portland, has done more to help their playoff chances thus far than Utah. They're in a three-way tie for 5th, but they have already beaten both teams they're tied with, AND their remaining schedule is fairly easy. Vegas, Brooklyn, Colorado, Kansas City, and Golden State all remain. They probably don't even have to win all of those games to get in. Dropping one probably won't kill them (unless it's to KC). Much like Miami, this team is just full of solid dudes.
6. OKC Thunder (4-3)
Key Wins: Minnesota
Key Losses: Seattle, Utah
There's a world in which OKC is undefeated, given that all three of their losses were coin flips. Unfortunately for them, that's not the world we are living in, and they're almost certainly going to have to knock off one east power (Miami, Tampa Bay) and one of the top west teams (Portland, Houston) to get into the playoffs. There's enough star power here, that they could do it, as long as guys stay healthy.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3)
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: OKC, Utah
With losses to OKC and Utah, and games remaining against Seattle, Houston and Portland, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Wovles to make it back to the playoffs. Of course, it was roughly around this time last year that they upset Seattle and kickstarted an incredible run to the postseason, so who knows. Maybe history repeats itself. They do have the leader in the clubhouse for fantasy MVP, after all.
8. Colorado Swannies (1-6)
They're going to upset at least one, maybe two teams, in the second half of the season. They have enough talent to do it, and if it all comes together in the right week, it is going to ruin someone's season. It will be fascinating to see what this team does in the off-season with a top-7 in place and money to burn.
9. Golden State Warriors (0-7)
Similar to the Swannies, this team is going to knock someone off. Injuries and COVID have ruined the first half of the schedule, but it was a monster to begin with. It wouldn't be crazy for this team to run the table in the second half of the season, but they'll need to be healthy.
10. Las Vegas Gamblers (0-7)
Kind of disappointing they didn't try this past off-season. There are some good pieces here. Could have been frisky with a couple of good signings.
CURRENT LOTTO ODDS
1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Las Vegas Gamblers
3. Brooklyn Nets (via GS)
4. Brooklyn Nets (via COL)
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Brooklyn Nets (via WAS)
7. Kansas City Kings (via MEM)
8. Memphis Grizzlies (via ATL)
9. Brooklyn Nets (via ORL)
10. Brooklyn Nets (via MIN)
11. Kansas City Kings (via OKC)
12. Washington Wizards (via Utah)
Right now, Brooklyn is projected to have 6 of the top 10 picks. KC is projected to have two lotto picks. It is unlikely this is how things look in 7 weeks given remaining schedules. The only certain thing seems to be that Brooklyn, Vegas and Toronto will finish bottom three, in some order.