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Post by Miege22 on Jan 10, 2022 11:56:50 GMT -5
Let's figure out some tiebreakers, shall we? Gonna start in the East, since the West is going to make me pass out.
*--1. New York Knicks (9-3) Key Wins: Tampa Bay, Atlanta Key Losses:
The Knicks are the only team in the league to clinch a playoff spot, and their magic number to clinch the top spot in the East is three.
2. Brooklyn Nets (7-5) Key Wins: Tampa Bay Key Losses: Atlanta
Somewhat amazingly, the Nets are in the two-spot thanks to their head-to-head win over Tampa Bay. With Chicago still on the schedule, their spot in the 2-3 match-up is still up in the air.
3. Tampa Bay Bull Sharks (7-5) Key Wins: Key Losses: Brooklyn, New York
Given their losses to Brooklyn and New York, it is very unlikely Tampa Bay can jump into the top spot. They will definitely make the playoffs, and a win over Chicago will keep them out of the play-in.
4. Chicago Bulls (5-7) Key Wins: Atlanta Key Losses:
The Bulls still have Tampa, Brooklyn, and New York, so a lot can change with their playoff seeding. Of course, that cuts both ways as they're only two games up on the Wizards to even make the playoffs.
5. Atlanta Hawks (5-7) Key Wins: Brooklyn Key Losses: Chicago, New York
If the Hawks win out, a spot in the 2-3 match-up becomes likely.
6. Washington Wizards (3-9) Key Wins: Atlanta, New York Key Losses: Tampa Bay
The Wizards are a sneaky playoff threat, given their wins over Atlanta and New York. With Brooklyn and Chicago still on the schedule, a path is there.
7. Toronto Raptors (2-10) Key Wins: Chicago Key Losses: Tampa Bay
The Raptors jumped to 7 thanks to their conference record. They will be eliminated with a loss and wins by Atlanta and Chicago.
8. Memphis Grizzlies (2-10) Key Wins: Washington Key Losses: Brooklyn, Chicago, Atlanta
Grizz currently ahead of the Magic based on categories won. That will change after their week 13 match-up. This team will be eliminated with a loss.
9. Orlando Magic (2-10) Key Wins: Key Losses: New York, Chicago, Brooklyn, Tampa Bay
Eliminated with a loss and Atlanta win.
10. Miami Heat (1-11) Key Wins: Key Losses: New York, Chicago, Brooklyn
Officially eliminated with a loss.
1. Kansas City Kings (11-1) Key Wins: Portland, Seattle Key Losses: OKC Remaining Schedule: Colorado, Houston, Phoenix, Golden State
The West gets their remaining games listed because it's a damn cluster over here. At least the Kings have made it easy and are alone in first (for now). They're two up in the division, but key division games await.
2. Golden State Warriors (10-2) Key Wins: Colorado, Houston, Portland Key Losses: OKC, Phoenix Remaining Schedule: Seattle, Las Vegas, Utah, Kansas City
The Warriors proving that the best way to avoid bad tiebreakers is to simply win more games. Those losses to OKC and Phoenix can't come into play if the Warriors finish with a better record, and with Vegas and Utah left...
3. OKC Thunder (9-3) Key Wins: Golden State, Portland, Kansas City Key Losses: Remaining Schedule: Phoenix, Colorado, Seattle, Houston
Here's where things get whacky. Because these four haven't all played each other, and they're in different divisions, it goes to conference record and... actually, we're done here. OKC, at 5-0 so far, leads the group.
4. Phoenix Suns (9-3) Key Wins: Seattle, Golden State, Houston Key Losses: Remaining Schedule: OKC, Portland, Kansas City, Colorado
Phoenix follows up at 4-1 in conference, but much like KC and OKC, key games await.
5. Colorado Swannies (9-3) Key Wins: Seattle Key Losses: Portland, Golden State Remaining Schedule: Kansas City, OKC, Houston, Phoenix
The Swannies are 3-2 in conference, and last week was the start of their division slate. All four games in the division in four straight weeks. Wrapping up with Phoenix from the Pacific. Quite the gauntlet.
6. Houston Rockets (9-3) Key Wins: Portland Key Losses: Seattle, Golden State, Phoenix Remaining Schedule: Las Vegas, Kansas City, Colorado, OKC
The Rockets, at 2-3, are currently on the outside looking in, but that will last for one week. They'll be back in the top-5 next week, but then the real fun begins.
7. Portland Trailblazers (8-4) Key Wins: Colorado Key Losses: Houston, Kansas City, OKC, Golden State Remaining Schedule: Utah, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Seattle
Portland will almost certainly get to 10 wins, but the tiebreaker math could be what kills them. In all likelihood, they'll have to win out.
8. Seattle Supersonics (7-5) Key Wins: Houston Key Losses: Phoenix, Colorado, Kansas City Remaining Schedule: Golden State, Utah, OKC, Portland
Hard to believe the season finale between Portland and Seattle could end up determining nothing more than Brooklyn's lotto odds. There is a path for Seattle, but they have to run the table.
e--9. Utah Jazz (3-9)
Playing spoiler
e--10. Las Vegas Gamblers (2-10)
Lotto time
*--: clinched playoff spot E--: eliminated
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Post by Miege22 on Jan 10, 2022 13:57:42 GMT -5
So there is no scenario in which the top-8 West teams finish tied at 11-5. Well, that's not technically true, but it would require Golden State losing to both Vegas and Utah, and quite frankly, I'm not even bothering with that scenario. However, there is a fun scenario in which teams 2-8 all finish at 11-5. It would go down like this:
KC: L, L, L, L OKC: W, L, L, W PHX: L, L, W, W COL: W, L, W, L HOU: W, W, L, L POR: W, W, W, L SEA: W, W, W, W
If that happens, I may up and quit because life is too cruel to keep this going. But we would have to figure it out beforehand, and here's how it shakes out...
We would go to head-to-head between the teams:
KC: 2-4 OKC: 4-2 PHX: 4-2 COL: 3-3 HOU: 2-4 POR: 2-4 SEA: 3-3
OKC and PHX would be 2 and 3, respectively (OKC would have the tiebreaker over PHX) Colorado and Seattle would be 4 and 5
Honestly, it was not as crazy as I thought it would be. The three-team ties is where conference record and, potentially, categories come into play. Once you get to 4 or more, head-to-head kind of sorts it all out.
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Post by Kots (Colorado GM) on Jan 10, 2022 17:14:46 GMT -5
It really is the 'wild west'
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Post by Miege22 on Jan 17, 2022 14:00:03 GMT -5
*--1. New York Knicks (10-3) Key Wins: Tampa Bay, Atlanta Key Losses:
With a two game lead, and three games remaining, the Knicks are all but assured the top seed. They can clinch it with a win and a Brooklyn loss.
*--2. Brooklyn Nets (8-5) Key Wins: Tampa Bay Key Losses: Atlanta
Brooklyn's status will almost certainly come down to the regular season finale against Toronto. A win there, and an Atlanta loss to Tampa Bay, will lock them into the 2-3 match-up.
*--3. Tampa Bay Bull Sharks (8-5) Key Wins: Chicago Key Losses: Brooklyn, New York
Tampa has a much easier home stretch than Brooklyn, which should help keep them in the 2-3 match-up.
4. Atlanta Hawks (6-7) Key Wins: Brooklyn Key Losses: Chicago, New York
Taking care of business and keeping the pressure on Brooklyn and Tampa Bay to close the season strong.
5. Chicago Bulls (5-8) Key Wins: Atlanta Key Losses: Tampa Bay
That's probably it for their shot to jump into the 2/3. At this point, the focus is just on getting healthy.
6. Washington Wizards (3-10) Key Wins: Atlanta, New York Key Losses: Tampa Bay, Brooklyn
They still have a game left against Chicago. Winning out is probably needed to get into the playoffs.
7. Orlando Magic (3-10) Key Wins: Key Losses: New York, Chicago, Brooklyn, Tampa Bay
Orlando got a win over Memphis keeping their (dim) playoff hopes alive. A loss or Chicago win eliminates them for good.
8. Toronto Raptors (2-11) Key Wins: Chicago Key Losses: Tampa Bay, New York
Tough, tough loss against New York. A win would have vaulted them into solid position to potentially make the playoffs. As it stands, they're just about done.
E--9. Memphis Grizzlies (2-11)
Playing spoiler
E--10. Miami Heat (1-12)
Lotto time
*--1. Kansas City Kings (12-1) Key Wins: Portland, Seattle, Colorado Key Losses: OKC Remaining Schedule: Houston, Phoenix, Golden State
For the fourth straight year, the Kings are in the playoffs. Where they finish depends on their remaining schedule. They could be the top seed, or in the play-in game. Either way, kudos to the Kings.
2. Golden State Warriors (11-2) Key Wins: Colorado, Houston, Portland, Seattle Key Losses: OKC, Phoenix Remaining Schedule: Las Vegas, Utah, Kansas City
I keep trying to game this out to figure out a way that Golden State misses the playoffs, and I'm not really finding one. However, there are so many variations, I can't say for sure they're in. Let's just go with this: beat Vegas, the Warriors are back in the postseason. Easy enough?
3. Phoenix Suns (10-3) Key Wins: Seattle, Golden State, Houston, OKC Key Losses: Remaining Schedule: Portland, Kansas City, Colorado
The Suns are almost certainly going to make the postseason after dispatching OKC. They now get a banged up Portland team, and all their tiebreakers should give them the edge. A win and OKC loss will clinch it.
4. Houston Rockets (10-3) Key Wins: Portland Key Losses: Seattle, Golden State, Phoenix Remaining Schedule: Kansas City, Colorado, OKC
The gauntlet begins this week. Just one win over the next three may be enough to get in. Two will guarantee it. These three games, though, are not easy.
5. OKC Thunder (9-4) Key Wins: Golden State, Portland, Kansas City Key Losses: Phoenix Remaining Schedule: Colorado, Seattle, Houston
Tough loss to Phoenix, but the biggest game of the season against Colorado awaits.
6. Colorado Swannies (9-4) Key Wins: Seattle Key Losses: Portland, Golden State, Kansas City Remaining Schedule: OKC, Houston, Phoenix
See the OKC recap for Colorado. Same thing applies.
7. Portland Trailblazers (8-5) Key Wins: Colorado Key Losses: Houston, Kansas City, OKC, Golden State Remaining Schedule: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Seattle
That could do it for the Blazers. Their conference record likely eliminates them in any kind of three-way tie situation.
8. Seattle Supersonics (7-6) Key Wins: Houston Key Losses: Phoenix, Colorado, Kansas City, Golden State Remaining Schedule: Utah, OKC, Portland
With OKC and Portland still on the schedule, there is a very, very slim chance Seattle could still sneak in. It's quite unlikely.
E--9. Utah Jazz (4-9)
Playing spoiler
E--10. Las Vegas Gamblers (2-11)
Lotto time
*--: clinched playoff spot E--: eliminated
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Post by Miege22 on Jan 19, 2022 10:22:00 GMT -5
I keep looking at the West to try and sort through it. Given their injuries, the Swannies are probably going to come up short. If they do, then that opens up a tiny window for Seattle to somehow sneak in. If OKC wins this week, then loses their last two, Portland loses this week, Colorado loses out, AND Seattle wins out, then the Sonics would make the playoffs. If things don't happen exactly like that, Seattle is probably eliminated.
If OKC wins this week, loses their last two, Seattle wins out, and Portland beats Phoenix, then the Thunder get in based on conference record (the first tiebreaker, head-to-head, would be tied 1-1 between the three teams).
If OKC or Colorado hits 11 wins, then Seattle is out.
If OKC wins this week, loses to Seattle, then beats Houston; Colorado loses this week and wins out; Houston wins this week and loses out; then all three teams would be tied at 11-5. In that exact scenario, Houston would be out as they would have lost to both Colorado and OKC.
If the above scenario happens AND Portland finishes 11-5... then a lot would depend on Phoenix's game with KC. If Phoenix loses to KC, in that scenario, then PHX is out and there would be four teams tied for three spots (HOU, POR, COL, OKC). In that case, OKC would be the three seed, having beaten all three. The remaining three teams would all be tied, so we'd revert to conference record to determine the last three spots... Colorado would be fourth with a 5-4 conference record. The fifth spot would be between Houston and Portland, and Houston would get it based on head-to-head.
Now, if the above scenario happens AND PHX is tied? OKC would still be the 3 seed, since they'd have the best head-to-head in the group (3-1). The rest would be 2-2 against one another, so it would be off to conference record. In that case, it would be PHX in the 4th spot. Houston, Portland, and Colorado would be 1-1 against each other, and Colorado would have the conference record tiebreak, so Colorado would be the 5th seed.
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Tampa Bay Bull Sharks
Moderator
2012 NBA Champions, 2015 NBA Champions, 2016 NBA Champions, 2024 GM League Cup Champions
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Tampa Bay Bull Sharks on Jan 19, 2022 11:52:19 GMT -5
I keep looking at the West to drive and sort through it. Given their injuries, the Swannies are probably going to come up short. If they do, then that opens up a tiny window for Seattle to somehow sneak in. If OKC wins this week, then loses their last two, Portland loses this week, Colorado loses out, AND Seattle wins out, then the Sonics would make the playoffs. If things don't happen exactly like that, Seattle is probably eliminated. If OKC wins this week, loses their last two, Seattle wins out, and Portland beats Phoenix, then the Thunder get in based on conference record (the first tiebreaker, head-to-head, would be tied 1-1 between the three teams). If OKC or Colorado hits 11 wins, then Seattle is out. If OKC wins this week, loses to Seattle, then beats Houston; Colorado loses this week and wins out; Houston wins this week and loses out; then all three teams would be tied at 11-5. In that exact scenario, Houston would be out as they would have lost to both Colorado and OKC. If the above scenario happens AND Portland finishes 11-5... then a lot would depend on Phoenix's game with KC. If Phoenix loses to KC, in that scenario, then PHX is out and there would be four teams tied for three spots (HOU, POR, COL, OKC). In that case, OKC would be the three seed, having beaten all three. The remaining three teams would all be tied, so we'd revert to conference record to determine the last three spots... Colorado would be fourth with a 5-4 conference record. The fifth spot would be between Houston and Portland, and Houston would get it based on head-to-head. Now, if the above scenario happens AND PHX is tied? OKC would still be the 3 seed, since they'd have the best head-to-head in the group (3-1). The rest would be 2-2 against one another, so it would be off to conference record. In that case, it would be PHX in the 4th spot. Houston, Portland, and Colorado would be 1-1 against each other, and Colorado would have the conference record tiebreak, so Colorado would be the 5th seed. Seems pretty straightforward
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Post by Kots (Colorado GM) on Jan 19, 2022 18:49:48 GMT -5
I keep looking at the West to try and sort through it. Given their injuries, the Swannies are probably going to come up short. If they do, then that opens up a tiny window for Seattle to somehow sneak in. If OKC wins this week, then loses their last two, Portland loses this week, Colorado loses out, AND Seattle wins out, then the Sonics would make the playoffs. If things don't happen exactly like that, Seattle is probably eliminated. If OKC wins this week, loses their last two, Seattle wins out, and Portland beats Phoenix, then the Thunder get in based on conference record (the first tiebreaker, head-to-head, would be tied 1-1 between the three teams). If OKC or Colorado hits 11 wins, then Seattle is out. If OKC wins this week, loses to Seattle, then beats Houston; Colorado loses this week and wins out; Houston wins this week and loses out; then all three teams would be tied at 11-5. In that exact scenario, Houston would be out as they would have lost to both Colorado and OKC. If the above scenario happens AND Portland finishes 11-5... then a lot would depend on Phoenix's game with KC. If Phoenix loses to KC, in that scenario, then PHX is out and there would be four teams tied for three spots (HOU, POR, COL, OKC). In that case, OKC would be the three seed, having beaten all three. The remaining three teams would all be tied, so we'd revert to conference record to determine the last three spots... Colorado would be fourth with a 5-4 conference record. The fifth spot would be between Houston and Portland, and Houston would get it based on head-to-head. Now, if the above scenario happens AND PHX is tied? OKC would still be the 3 seed, since they'd have the best head-to-head in the group (3-1). The rest would be 2-2 against one another, so it would be off to conference record. In that case, it would be PHX in the 4th spot. Houston, Portland, and Colorado would be 1-1 against each other, and Colorado would have the conference record tiebreak, so Colorado would be the 5th seed. I have no doubt that the probability of me winning another matchup this season is '0' with Houston and Phoenix still to play. And none of these guys are out due to covid protocols!! AD, Turner, Melo, Reddish, Birch, Bembry
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Post by Miege22 on Jan 24, 2022 17:35:33 GMT -5
#--1. New York Knicks (11-3) Key Wins: Tampa Bay, Atlanta Key Losses:
*--2. Tampa Bay Bull Sharks (9-5) Key Wins: Chicago Key Losses: Brooklyn, New York
A win or Atlanta loss locks up a top-3 seed for the Bull Sharks.
*--3. Brooklyn Nets (8-6) Key Wins: Tampa Bay Key Losses: Atlanta, Chicago
The Nets now need a win and a Hawks loss to clinch a top-3 seed
*--4. Atlanta Hawks (7-7) Key Wins: Brooklyn Key Losses: Chicago, New York
If the Hawks win out, they can sneak into the top-3
*--5. Chicago Bulls (6-8) Key Wins: Atlanta, Brooklyn Key Losses: Tampa Bay
Chicago gets into the three seed if they win out, the Nets lose out, and the Hawks lose one.
E--6. Orlando Magic (3-11)
E--7. Toronto Raptors (3-11)
E--8. Washington Wizards (3-11)
E--9. Memphis Grizzlies (2-12)
E--10. Miami Heat (1-13)
*--1. Kansas City Kings (13-1) Key Wins: Portland, Seattle, Colorado, Houston Key Losses: OKC Remaining Schedule: Phoenix, Golden State
For the fourth straight year, the Kings are in the playoffs. Where they finish depends on their remaining schedule. They could be the top seed, or in the play-in game. Either way, kudos to the Kings.
*--2. Golden State Warriors (12-2) Key Wins: Colorado, Houston, Portland, Seattle Key Losses: OKC, Phoenix Remaining Schedule: Utah, Kansas City
I keep trying to game this out to figure out a way that Golden State misses the playoffs, and I'm not really finding one. However, there are so many variations, I can't say for sure they're in. Let's just go with this: beat Vegas, the Warriors are back in the postseason. Easy enough?
*--3. Phoenix Suns (11-3) Key Wins: Seattle, Golden State, Houston, OKC, Portland Key Losses: Remaining Schedule: Kansas City, Colorado
I hope you all are checking this thread, because we can now confirm that the Phoenix Suns have clinched a playoff spot. At worse, they can tie with Colorado, but the only permutation that would put them in danger is if all four of Phoenix, Houston, OKC, and Colorado finish tied at 11-5. If that happens, Phoenix gets in on tiebreakers anyway since they defeated OKC and Houston. So Phoenix... welcome back to the playoffs.
4. Houston Rockets (10-4) Key Wins: Portland Key Losses: Seattle, Golden State, Phoenix, Kansas City Remaining Schedule: Colorado, OKC
Now things get fuzzy, but only kind of. It's a win and in situation for Houston. Beat Colorado, and they're back in the playoffs. Lose, and we're in for a wacky week 17.
5. OKC Thunder (10-4) Key Wins: Golden State, Portland, Kansas City, Colorado Key Losses: Phoenix Remaining Schedule: Seattle, Houston
Weirdly, a win on it's own, does not get OKC in. A win, combined with a Colorado loss, gets that job done.
6. Colorado Swannies (9-5) Key Wins: Seattle Key Losses: Portland, Golden State, Kansas City, OKC Remaining Schedule: Houston, Phoenix
If Colorado wins this week, Houston loses out, and Seattle beats Portland, then the Swannies are in. Obviously, if the Swannies win out, they are in as well.
7. Seattle Supersonics (8-6) Key Wins: Houston Key Losses: Phoenix, Colorado, Kansas City, Golden State Remaining Schedule: OKC, Portland
Here's the scenario for Seattle: 1. Win out. 2. Houston loses out. 3. Colorado loses to Phoenix. That sets up a three-team tie between Seattle, Colorado, Houston that Seattle wins based on the conference record tiebreaker. That's not the only scenario for Seattle. If the Sonics win out, and the Thunder lose out, then the Sonics would get in, provided Colorado also loses out. We think that's it, but that picture will obviously clear up a bunch after this week.
E--8. Portland Trailblazers (8-6)
Because Houston and OKC still have to play each other, one of those teams will reach 11 wins. That means that the best Portland can do is a three-way tie for 5th. In any permutation of that three way tie, they lose the tiebreaker. Portland is officially eliminated.
E--9. Utah Jazz (4-9)
Playing spoiler
E--10. Las Vegas Gamblers (2-11)
Lotto time
#--: clinched top overall seed *--: clinched playoff spot E--: eliminated
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Post by Miege22 on Jan 25, 2022 15:35:22 GMT -5
EDIT TO OKC:
A win does get them in. If they win, then Seattle is eliminated, and Colorado is eliminated with a loss. However, if Colorado beats Houston, the best Houston can do is 11-5. Even if Colorado, OKC, and Houston all finish tied at 11-5, then OKC still gets in on tiebreakers.
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Post by Miege22 on Jan 27, 2022 11:38:00 GMT -5
Just some more updates...
A Chicago loss or Brooklyn win locks the Bulls into the play-in game. A Phoenix win locks them into the 2-3 match-up. The Suns could, in theory, jump to 1 if GS lost this week, but that match-up is basically done. Phoenix will be 2 or 3 with a win.
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Post by Miege22 on Jan 31, 2022 9:38:20 GMT -5
#--1. New York Knicks (11-4)
*--2. Tampa Bay Bull Sharks (10-5)
*--3. Brooklyn Nets (9-6)
*--4. Atlanta Hawks (7-8)
*--5. Chicago Bulls (6-9)
E--6. Orlando Magic (4-11)
E--7. Toronto Raptors (4-11)
E--8. Washington Wizards (4-11)
E--9. Memphis Grizzlies (2-13)
E--10. Miami Heat (1-14)
*--1. Kansas City Kings (13-2)
A win against GS wraps up the #1 seed. A loss will drop them into the 2/3 match-up.
*--2. Golden State Warriors (13-2)
See above
*--3. Phoenix Suns (12-3)
Locked into the 2/3 match-up
*--4. OKC Thunder (11-4)
4th with a win, 5th with a loss
5. Colorado Swannies (10-5)
A win or a Houston loss, and Colorado will make their first playoff appearance in over a decade
6. Houston Rockets (10-5)
Need a win and a Colorado loss
E--7. Portland Trailblazers (9-6)
E--8. Portland Trailblazers (8-7) E--9. Utah Jazz (4-11)
E--10. Las Vegas Gamblers (2-13)
#--: clinched top overall seed *--: clinched playoff spot E--: eliminated
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