2023 Conference Finals Previews
Mar 6, 2023 16:23:02 GMT -5
Kots (Colorado GM), MemphisGM, and 3 more like this
Post by Miege22 on Mar 6, 2023 16:23:02 GMT -5
WEST: Colorado vs. Portlad
How They Got Here
Colorado is the #3 seed in the Western Conference and 2nd place finisher in the Midwest Division. They upset Phoenix in round 1, 7-2, advancing to just their second conference finals in franchise history, and their first since 2010.
Portland is the #4 seed, coming at 11-5. They finished 2nd in the Pacific and upset the Houston Rockets, 5-4, to advance to their 2nd WCF, also their first since 2010.
Regular Season Meeting(s)
The Swannies and Trailblazers played in week 10 (Dec. 19-25). The Blazers won, 5-3-1.
KEY INJURIES
Colorado – Robert Williams (hamstring – out); LaMelo Ball (ankle – out); Kyle Kuzma (knee – DTD); Zach Collins (personal – DTD)
Portland – John Wall (unemployed – out)
HOW DID THESE TWO GET HERE?
Colorado and Phoenix were neck and neck out of the gate, but the Swannies built up a decent lead at the midway point, and they only improved on those margins en route to a dominant victory. The Swannies really were a buzzsaw in the conference semis. They led all playoff teams in FG %, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and points. It was, arguably, the most dominant playoff series this league has seen in quite some time, but it was not all good vibes for Colorado. Towards the end of their match-up with Phoenix, they lost LaMelo Ball for the rest of the season to an ankle fracture. They then (likely) lost Timelord to a hamstring strain, and now there is a question about Kyle Kuzma's status. Those are three pretty big pieces for this Colorado team. The question now becomes... will they have the depth to carry them through? Of course, if they get performances like the one they got from Anthony Davis (27.7. pts, 12.7 rebs, 2.7 asts, 2.7 blks), they'll feel pretty good. Still, they are going to need some role players to play above their heads to get to the Finals...
Because, woo buddy, the Blazers are here. Portland was not that far off Colorado's totals despite playing 400 fewer minutes. They spent all year just waiting, and waiting, and waiting to get healthy. Then they did in the last round, and they looked damn good. They were able to sneak past the Rockets, and now they're on the precipice of their 2nd Finals appearance in franchise history. One of those guys they needed healthy, Paul George, was awesome (26/6/5 with 20 threes). Another, KD, came back and put up a monster 3 games (27/7/4 on 69%(!) shooting). Their overall top scorer? Mikal Bridges, who totaled 212 points against the Rockets. After all those weeks of guys in and out of the lineup, Portland finally has all it's big guns on the floor. And with Bridges playing like this, it's a legitimate big 4. Portland may be the 4th seed, but it's in name only. This team can absolutely win the title, and there's an argument to be made that they might just be the favorite.
WHAT DID THE PLAYERS TO WATCH DO?
Well, we actually touched on both of these guys already. Anthony Davis was awesome, playing in all but one game in the match-up against Phoenix. Looking ahead, Davis is scheduled to play 7 games in this round. However, there is a back-to-back in there, so he may top out at 6 games. Colorado is likely going to need him to continue to playing at the same level if they want to win. One new player we want to highlight: Josh Giddey. The 2nd year man from down under put up 16-7-7 against Phoenix, and he is scheduled to play 7 games in this series. With LaMelo Ball out, Colorado will need him to avoid any slumps.
We mentioned Bridges was Portland's leading scorer, but here was his stat line from the conference semis: 26.5/6/3. He also hit 19 threes on 55/90 splits. He has seven games on the schedule for this round. The key players in this round, though, may be the Portland bigs. Rebounding and blocked shots are a real strength of the Swannies, but with Timelord out, there is an opening for Portland if Poeltl, Reid, Lopez, and Draymond can step up. All four were solid to good in the last round.
IS THERE HISTORY HERE?
Not really. Portland has dominated this match-up, winning 8 of 11 meetings, but none of them have happened in the playoffs. These two didn't even share a conference for the first four years in the league. Colorado was in Charlotte and in the East, while Portland was in Cleveland... and in the West. They've been in the same conference since 2015, with the last three of those years being in the West. This is only the 2nd time both teams have been in the playoffs at the same time, though much of that is obviously owed to Colorado's having not made the playoffs since 2010. It's the 2nd year in a row the WCF has featured two teams that only ever overlapped in the playoffs one time. It's the 13th unique WCF match-up in league history. It's the 2nd time in league history that the 3rd and 4th seeds in the West advanced to the conference finals in the same season. And whoever wins will be gunning for the first title in their franchise history.
WHAT'S AT STAKE?
Beyond the normal stakes of a conference finals match-up, there are a lot of fun storylines in play. Much like the Kings last year, Portland has been a study in consistent winning. After a dreadful final two seasons in Cleveland, where the team went 1-15 and 3-13, they moved to Portland and instantly morphed into contenders. They've won at least 10 games each of the last three seasons, making the playoffs in two of them. Oddly enough, the year they missed, 2022, they actually finished tied with Colorado at 10-6 and a game out of it. The bones of this contender date back to some shrewd future planning when the team was still in Cleveland. In the summer of 2018, fresh off a disappointing 8-8 season, Portland decided to go down a new path. They moved Klay Thompson for the 6th and 17th picks, then flipped 6 and 10 to move up to 3 and drafted Trae Young. Suddenly, they had their PG of the future. However, it was the subsequent, under the radar moved, that paid even bigger dividends. Portland sent John Wall to Colorado in exchange for the 14th pick (who they used on Mikal Bridges), Frank Mason, and Buddy Hield. Seemed innocuous at the time... until a year later, when the Blazers (still in Cleveland at this point) sent Hield, along with Kevin Love and Mo Wagner, to Kansas City for Kevin Durant. KD was set to miss the entire season, but the Cavs/Blazers could afford to wait. In the meantime, they drafted RJ Barrett, traded for Paul George and... boom. While it appeared a new contender just popped up overnight, those who had been following could see it was years in the making.
At this point, Colorado has to be playing with house money. After 11 years of wandering around the basketball desert, the Swannies finally made the playoffs... only for a late stat change to flip the Houston/OKC match-up, and send the Rockets to the postseason. It was the first time since 2010 that Colorado had won more than 6 games in a season, and yet 10 wins still wasn't good enough. Back to the drawing board they went, and after some shrewd trades and FA signings, they went 13-3 and left no doubt about their playoff credentials. Though what's interesting about this team is that they seemingly took an opposite path than Portland when it came to trades. In the midst of a lost 20-21 season, the Swannies did something unthinkable: they traded their 2021 pick, sure to be top-3 in lotto odds, for Darius Garland. That pick ended up falling to 5 in the lottery, while Darius Garland has become one of the best young point guards in the game. What came next in that draft was where they really hit gold though. Colorado swapped out Jerami Grant to KC for the 8th pick, which they used on Josh Giddey. That trade, though, was a bit of an outlier in Colorado's recent history. After landing Anthony Davis in the 2012 draft, Colorado went through a series of busts and ill-fated "too soon" trades (they drafted Giannis 20th and traded him a year later). Instead of banking on unproven rookies, the Swannies started sending out lotto picks for guys with proven track records, but room to grow. That's how they landed Myles Turner (4th pick in 2017 to Toronto) and Robert Williams (9th pick in 2022 to Brooklyn). "Now wait a minute," you might be thinking, "the 4th pick in 2017 was De'Aaron Fox. That doesn't seem like it'd be a bad thing." Sure. In a vacuum, it'd be fine... but these things are connected. If Colorado has Fox, do they trade for Garland? Do they pass up LaMelo Ball in the 2020 draft for a big (James Wiseman)? It's hard to say. But what these moves have done is set them up to play for their first Finals in franchise history, and if they get there, it will be the 5th straight year the West is represented by a first-time finalist.